The decisive weeks of war begin for Ukraine. What problems of the Russian Army can allow the Armed Forces to have an effective counter -offensive - NYT
“The estimates of US intelligence and intelligence of Western countries indicate the likelihood that the next weeks or months will be decisive for Ukraine. Even if the Russian forces are not able to push significantly, a powerful counter -offensive can strengthen the trust of allies of Ukraine, ”NYT emphasizes.
The publication names two main reasons that already slow down Russian attacks and give the Armed Forces more likely to success counter -offensive operations - these are "critical problems with living power and equipment" in the occupying army.
And if at the initial stage of the war such factors have forced Russia to narrow their goals, abandon the storm of Kiev and focus the offensive in the East, now "Russia may be more difficult to review its strategy and restore strength at least in the short term," NYT writes.
These estimates are consistent with a recent analysis of the Institute for the Study of War, which in its summary on August 4 suggested that Ukraine has managed to intercept the strategic initiative in the war with Russia, and this forces the Russian army to redistribute forces and change priorities in response to counter -offensive operations.
"The preparation of Ukraine for the counter -offensive in Kherson and the initial operations of this counter -offensive in combination with the sharp weakening of the Russian forces in general, probably for the first time, Ukraine is allowed to begin actively forming the course of war," - said ISW analysts. HB recounts similar conclusions that have collected NYT based on Western intelligence.
The American and European sources of New York Times are reminded that Vladimir Putin has never dared to declare mobilization, but few managed to win the whole country and destroy the enemy's army by forces that are largely completed with irregular "volunteer" troops.
At the same time, NATO officials and other representatives of the event believe that this problem is becoming more and more tangible to the Russian army: the realities in the fields of fighting "should force Russian troops to slow down operations to support the exhausted units, better protect the supply lines and throw new equipment.
" At the same time, the sources of the publication suggest that Putin will ignore the advice of his officers and will demand to continue the offensive in eastern Ukraine throughout the summer. However, a lot of personnel problems in the Russian army has accumulated, NYT lists: although problems with equipment and equipment in the Russian army are not as sharp as a shortage of living power, they are "significant", states NYT.
Here are the main ones: the latter was once again confirmed in the NYT commentary by Brigade General Christopher King, a Senior British Army officer in the center of Western weapons for Ukraine, located in German Stuttgart. According to him, the strikes from Himars and other tools allowed the Armed Forces to "reduce the possibilities of Russians to secure our army - just why we put them [the Armed Forces] for this weapon.
" In five months of war, the Ukrainian army also suffered losses in artillery, tanks and live power. However, as recalled by NYT unnamed high -ranking Ukrainian military official, the Armed Forces have much more officers with many years of frontal experience, which was a decisive factor in the first stage of the war. Now it will be crucial for Ukraine to be the result of the next weeks or months, writes the publication with reference to Western intelligence estimates.
At the same time, official Kyiv is aware that the Armed Forces have a very limited amount of time to use the current obvious weaknesses of Russia, British sources reported to the publication on the results of contact with Ukrainian officials. NYT also suggests two congressmen who recently visited Kiev as a delegation of US lawmakers. Both have confirmed that Ukraine will really try to take a chance and prepare for a counter -offensive.
“The Russians are exhausted, and it is unlikely to give them time to regroup and rest. I understand the desire to strike when they are tired, ”said a member of the House of Representatives of the United States, Democrat Elissa Slotkin. And Republican Michael Voltz, a former serviceman and now a member of the House of Representatives, urged the United States to send more jet artillery and other modern weapons to Ukraine.