"Everything or nothing": After the fall of ally Assad Putin seeks decisive victory in Ukraine - nyt
However, for President of Russian Vladimir Putin, the loss of his closest ally in the Middle East can only be a temporary failure in the desire for a triumph in Ukraine. Military and political analysts have stated that the victory in the war in Ukraine has become the purpose of Putin, which would enable him to protect the global status of the Russian Federation and compensate for strategic failures in the same Syria.
Oleksandr Baunov, a political analyst of the Eurasian Center of Carnegie, noted that Putin's rate for war in Ukraine is so high that the victory will bring Russia historical benefits: everything or nothing. Putin can strengthen his offensive in Ukraine to restore prestige. This was called on by Russian guidance commentators while demanding stringent peace conditions in Ukraine to avoid an indefinite ceasefire, which eventually led to Assad in Syria.
Both scenarios complicate the task of the new US administration under Donald Trump to rapidly cease hostilities in Ukraine. When Assad's regime fell, the newly elected US President made fun of Russia for the inability to save his ally and urged to conclude an agreement on Ukraine without explaining, however, however, what it may look like. Through Ukraine and the bad economy, Russia is "weakened now", Trump wrote on his social network Truth Social.
Analysts say that one of Putin's 25-year-old rule is his unwillingness to act from a standpoint or obey external pressure. His own descriptions of what Russian victory in Ukraine will have been vague. Until last year, the Russian army abandoned its unsuccessful attempts to organize large -scale offenses that could overthrow the Ukrainian state. Instead, they focused on the east of Ukraine, while at the same time put pressure on Kiev forces in several sections of the front.
Military experts interpreted this strategy as an attempt to deplete the army and society of Ukraine and force Kiev to sit at the negotiation table. Putin hinted that any peace agreement should allow Russia to preserve at least the territory she has already occupied and guarantee the military neutrality of Ukraine, that is, the refusal to join NATO. Russia also seeks to suppress Ukraine's military potential.
"We do not have to talk about a ceasefire for half an hour or half a year so that they can replenish the ammunition," Putin said last month. The Ukrainian government has repeatedly rejected any peaceful conditions that would formalize the loss of the territory or forbid the country to seek NATO membership. In the short term, the failure of the Kremlin in Syria can narrow the space for compromise, journalists say.
The Russian guidance commentators angrily and surprised responded to the fall of Assad regime, mourning the lives of hundreds of Russian soldiers who died, supporting the Syrian army, which melted under the pressure of the rebels. Due to the goals of the war in Ukraine, Russia was unable to prevent the collapse of Syria.
In the Russian information space, they called for purposeful hunting for the Ukrainian leadership, but informed a little details of how the exhausted Russian army can achieve the surrender of Ukraine. Vasyl Kashin, a political scientist from the Moscow Higher School of Economics, noted that the Kremlin will continue fighting in accordance with its plan and will not turn away from other events that do not directly affect the situation on the forefront.
At the same time, the blow caused by Assad can push Putin to try to show the power of Ukraine, says Tatiana Stanova, a political scientist from the Carnegie Center. "He may try to show that Russia is not defeated, what she knows what to do. In order to demonstrate power, Putin could put forward new conditions in peace talks, or go to escalation with air strikes after his recent threats.
The US representative, on the face of anonymity, said that Russia can strike another blow to Ukraine by the Oryshnik rocket in the coming days. The Government of Ukraine has repeatedly called Putin's threats Blef, because the Russian army is already fighting on maximum opportunities. Some Russian analysts say that the fall of Assad after 13 years of war shows how difficult it is to win in a long conflict, and that victory in the modern world is possible only in a short and rapid war.