Budapest without arrest: why it is profitable for Putin to show the world the meeting with Trump in the Hungarian capital
White House spokeswoman Caroline Levitt rudely answered a journalist who asked why the new meeting of the leaders of the USA and the Russian Federation was decided to be held in the Hungarian capital. In particular, when asked who chose Budapest as the meeting place, Levitt responded with the words: "Your mother chose. " It will be recalled that the other day the head of the White House announced that he will meet with Putin in Budapest within the next two weeks.
This meeting will be preceded by talks between American and Russian high-ranking officials - US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov. Bloomberg reports that the meeting in Budapest will strengthen the Kremlin's position, adding that these negotiations will give the aggressor state time to rest and weaken Western support for Ukraine.
The very fact that the place of the potential meeting was chosen in Budapest, the Austrian political scientist and expert in the field of Eastern Europe and Russia, professor of the University of Innsbruck Gerhard Mangott considers "a bad sign for Kyiv and a slap in the face for the European Union. " "The European Union advocates the comprehensive supply of weapons to Ukraine, so that it may even win this war or secure a stronger negotiating position.
And at this very time, Trump announces his decision to meet with the head of the Kremlin in the capital of the country, which demonstrates the most positive attitude among EU members towards Putin and his war. It will be a summit of two great powers. That is, just like in the bad old days, the big powers are trying to settle the issue themselves. . .
At the same time, there will probably be no Ukraine in Budapest, with which Russia refuses to hold negotiations at the level of presidents," the well-known professor emphasizes. Meanwhile, the Hungarian authorities report an absolute readiness to meet Putin, despite an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court (ICC). "The location of the Trump-Putin meeting was chosen carefully, as it could benefit Russia by deepening the EU's divisions over the Kremlin.
It can also do a great favor to Orbán, who is facing elections in his country next year," said an unnamed European diplomat in a comment to El Pais. "And although EU leaders say in their public speeches that this meeting will be useful if it helps put an end to the Russian invasion, in private conversations several sources have declared a political nightmare for the EU," the leading Spanish publication summarizes.
In fact, by choosing Budapest as the location for their meeting, both Trump and Putin clearly demonstrate that they are putting pressure on Europe from both sides, political scientist Viktor Nebozhenko is convinced. Preemptively expressing this thesis in a conversation with Focus, the expert added: "The famous speech of US Vice President Vance in Munich and many other signals from overseas indicate that Trump, who seeks the gradual collapse of the EU and NATO, does not like liberal Europe.
Trump does not talk about it publicly, but this position of his is very, very similar to the interests of the Kremlin. There are no undercurrents here that, say, Trump is an agent of the Kremlin, etc. It's just that Europe is interfering with Trump, that's all. Personally, I am convinced that Trump is interested in a weak Europe and a strong Russia, which will own everything up to Warsaw. That is why they chose Budapest. It's strong, bright and brash.
" In addition, according to the political scientist, the personal factor plays not the least role in the situation with Budapest: "In Hungary, Orbán has been ruling in a dictatorial style for over a decade and a half - a person close to both Putin and Trump. Therefore, Budapest was again chosen not by chance, but in order to show Europe that it is the Russian Federation and the United States that decide its fate. And now the most mysterious.
The fact is that Trump and Putin equally suspect that European intrigues are hidden behind the tenacity of President Zelensky - that is, that it is Europe that does not give him the opportunity to come to an agreement with Russia on Moscow's terms. However, over the past four years, Europe has supported Zelenskyi and turned into a powerful economic and military rear of Ukraine. That's where a lot of things are made, and that's where our machinery is, etc.
" Cutting off pro-Ukrainian Europe, states Viktor Nebozhenko, is important both for the head of the White House and for the master of the Kremlin. "Each of them has their own interests, but they coincide in this case. So far, they have managed to show Europe that it is powerless to do anything against the geopolitical plans of Washington and Moscow.
Another question is whether the meeting between Trump and Putin in Budapest will take place in the end, because Putin's plane or bus needs to fly/drive through dangerous territory. Therefore, this "arrow" in Budapest is quite risky for Putin. Well, Trump will calmly come to his friend Orban and bring with him the famous red carpet from the summit in Alaska, trying to restore anything to do with Putin's Russia," the expert notes.
In general, the analyst views the Trump-Putin summit in Budapest from the perspective of the US and Russian relations with China: "After the meeting with Trump in Alaska, Putin humiliatingly told Xi Jinping two hundred times what he talked about with the US president. Now it will be the same. If there really is a meeting between Trump and Putin in Budapest, Putin will face a very unpleasant questioning in Beijing.
At the same time, Trump is desperately trying to sell eastern Ukraine to Putin, trying to prove that Xi has been in power for literally the last few months. But China is not only Xi Jinping, but an eternal geopolitical player, so it's not about who leads the PRC, but about Chinese interests, which very closely cover Russia and are very much in conflict with the United States.
" According to the forecast of the political scientist, under the guise of Ukrainian problems, in reality, another attempt by Trump to separate the Kremlin from Beijing will be made in Budapest, which, most likely, will turn out to be useless. Budapest, political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko notes in a conversation with Focus, is equally suitable as a meeting place for both Trump and Putin.
"For the American president, this location is comfortable, first of all, because Orbán is a hospitable host and his friend, who has long offered his capital for such a meeting. And so Trump took advantage of the opportunity. Well, Orban also has almost friendly relations with Putin, so this is a completely acceptable option for him, including from the point of view of security. There is a problem, which is now being actively discussed, regarding how Putin can get to the Hungarian capital.
I absolutely do not believe in the scenario that Trump will allegedly force Ukraine to let Putin pass through our territory. I believe that this is absolute delusion. Instead, a route through Turkey and the Balkans is being discussed. Most likely, that's how it will be," the political scientist emphasizes. At the same time, according to Volodymyr Fesenko, the Budapest location poses at least three risks for Ukraine.
The first risk is that Putin may propose some new, insidious pseudo-peace plan that will look like a compromise for Trump in exchange for a ceasefire from Russia. The second risk is likely concessions from President Trump. "Unfortunately, Trump is constantly wavering. It's good that now he is once again taking a stand on ending the war on the front line, but at the moment he has no guarantees that it will be the same in Budapest and after Budapest," says the political scientist.
After all, the third challenge for Kyiv, related to the meeting of the leaders of the USA and the Russian Federation in the capital of Hungary, according to the political scientist, is hidden in the figure of the prime minister there. Orban, the expert emphasizes, who "to put it mildly, has a bad attitude towards Ukraine and Ukrainians", can turn Trump against our country with truths and lies.
In addition, the expert summarizes, the head of the Hungarian government, in whom the US president has confidence, can persuade Donald Trump to agree to the proposals of the Russian Federation to end the war. Given the current circumstances, Volodymyr Fesenko predicts, Ukraine and its European partners will do everything possible to at least partially neutralize the risks outlined above.
Also, the political scientist does not rule out that before or immediately after Budapest, Kyiv, in close cooperation with leading European countries, may offer Donald Trump to hold a separate meeting, for example in Vienna - "near the capital of Hungary, where there is also a royal palace, a stay in which will certainly lift Trump's mood. " The meeting in the specified format, the expert believes, is extremely important in the context of defining a common algorithm for the peace process.
One way or another, Volodymyr Fesenko concludes, both before and after the Budapest meeting of the leaders of the USA and Russia, we will observe sufficiently high negotiating activity. Meanwhile, Volodymyr Zelenskyi was very skeptical about the expediency and final effectiveness of the meeting between Trump and Putin in Budapest, stressing that the Hungarian format cannot be objective a priori, as it always promotes an exclusively pro-Russian agenda.