NATO troops in Ukraine: Western soldiers are ready for large -scale battles and whether you should be afraid
Kiev runs the risk of retreating step by step before the numerically overwhelming army of Russia. If the Allies want to defeat the aggressor, urgent support of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces of the Western military, otherwise will have to put up with a "catastrophic defeat", writes US Department consultant, writer and historian Edward Luttvak in an article for UNHERD.
The analyst compares the number of soldiers in the Armed Forces and the tanal in proportion to the population of the countries. In Ukraine, according to various estimates, there are 30 million people, and serve in the Armed Forces of less than 800,000 existing servicemen. Israel is able to quickly gather an army of 600,000 people per population of up to 8 million.
According to Luttwac, the British, French and countries of Northern Europe are gradually preparing to send small elite units and specialists in logistics. All of them will be far from hot spots, help the Ukrainian military repair damaged equipment and teach recruits. The US will not send more than 40,000 soldiers who are serving in Europe, against the background of the threat of China's invasion of Taiwan. Other NATO members - Germany, France, Italy and Spain are waiting for an important decision.
If they do not provide enough troops for the Armed Forces, Russia will win on the battlefield. The Russian military power will continue to spill over to Central Europe, the historian warned. "NATO will probably never take part in hostilities. They are not obliged to do it, but will help to use the Armed Forces forces as effectively as possible," the American writer says.
It is worth noting that, in addition to France, other countries did not express their intentions to send their military to Ukraine. Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen, in a conversation with Financial Times, admitted this option, but "not at this stage of war, but in the long run. " When the prospect comes, the official did not specify. Valtonen's statements were supported by the Baltic States, and Germany, the United States and the United Kingdom immediately disappeared from this idea.
Estonia Prime Minister Kai Callas stated stable that she would not give "guarantees of non-existence" of Estonian Defense Forces, because it all depends on changing circumstances. Canada allowed to send a limited contingent, but only for the training of military personnel. The Baltic States, according to the head of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation of Sergei Kuzan, should not hurry to send troops to reinforce the Armed Forces, because they are geographically close to Russia.
They all need to prepare for an unexpected attack. The war in Ukraine testified to the "crisis" of NATO preparation for the Great Wars and since 2022 members of the Alliance urgently rewrite their strategies. Even the UK Defense Minister Grant Shepps only in April 2024 acknowledged that the world had moved from post -war to pre -war state. "Russia is threatened by Europe, China is increasingly aggressive. Iran is using proxy to create chaos from the Middle East to the Emenid Strait.
North Korea is constantly rattling nuclear saber. The malicious forces are united. All democracy is under threat," the minister presented. The Telegraph newspapers. Given the poor combat readiness, the call for NATO will be not only the dislocation of the military in Ukraine, but also the arrangement of the accompanying infrastructure: from the construction of camps and logistics routes to covering the sky over them over them, the Kuzan adds.
NATO countries were trained for special operations, not for large -scale battles. Small armies fought with Hussites, Hamas terrorists or ISIL. In the event of their actual transfer, foreign military can protect the Ukrainian-Moldovan border near Transnistria. Serious provocations in the near future in the region are not projected, so a model of peacekeeping and stabilization contingent is possible by analogy with KFOR forces, NATO units in Kosovo, think .
"Macron took the initiative to the ambition of the leader in the EU, and, apparently, dialogues with diplomats and high -ranking military from the unification countries were obtained within the European Union. Sending a foreign contingent to Ukraine - a step to the escalation of a full -scale war, but from the Russian Federation. Willingness to resist strong, "the expert shared considerations.
The former spokesman of the Armed Forces General Staff, the reserve colonel Vladislav Seleznyov is skeptical of the fact that in the near future European units will arrive in Ukraine. The departure of a NATO flag is an interference with the Russian Federation, and Western partners avoid such a scenario in every possible way. A bilateral contract military exchange is more policy and raising the status of specific presidents than real cases, the expert adds.
"We have problems with the regularity of weapons supply, some of the technologies are waiting for years, and what to say about helping live force? Maximum - consulting and training missions, as well as monitoring the use of selected assistance," Seleznyov said. Moscow involved about 500,000 Russian soldiers in its so -called. The Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova announced on April 3 about Paris plans to send 1500 French military to Ukraine.
According to her, the command of the French foreign legion approved the composition of the battalion-tactical group in early March 2024. "It is expected that in April the group will be brought to a state of full combat readiness for an operational throw at the Ukrainian Theater of War," Zakharova explained. Russia's external intelligence service cited other figures - in the initial stage, Paris will allocate 2000 soldiers. But even this data cannot be compared with the number of occupation troops.
Sergey Kuzan considers any presence of NATO troops with the help of Ukraine. In the rear, a lot of work and its strengthening by foreigners will help the rotation of the Ukrainian military. Another option is the location of the Western contingent on the borders with Moldova and Belarus. The Ukrainian units will take away from the borders and move closer to the war zone.
Moscow has repeatedly said that NATO troops in Ukraine will become the legitimate goals of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. Winged and ballistic missiles are used constantly and it is impossible to exclude the arrival of Iskander on the French camp. The leaders of all countries will have to carefully calculate all the risks before sending the military. "Will a stroke on a foreign camp immediately participate in the war on the side of Ukraine? Most likely, no.
There is a larger incident here: knocking down a ship or a plane with a crew. Russia is also not very ready to open a second front," - explains Alexei Melnyk. As an analogy, the expert cites the attack of Japanese air and underwater forces on the American harbor "Perl-Garbor" on the Hawaiian Island of Oahu on December 7, 1941. After this attack, the United States officially entered the Second World War.
Sergei Kuzan says that a rocket strike on a foreign contingent should be regarded as an attack by the Russian Federation on the entire NATO block. There will be no escalation for such a schedule, since the use of nuclear weapons is not tied to the departure of foreign legionnaires. "Will the French rocket fly away whether Paris will send the Armed Forces to work on the front? It all depends on the consensus of the military and political elites of France," the expert summed up.