Putin has transformed energy into geopolitical weapons: how to deprive the Russian Federation of oil income - Yermak
This is the opinion of the head of the Presidential Office Andriy Yermak, which he writes in a column in "European Truth". He notes that the USSR and today's Russia, which tries to restore the so -called "grandeur" of the empire, unites one thing - oil and income from the sale of petroleum products for export. However, Ermak emphasizes that Russia's oil incomes can become a trap for her, after which the Russian economy will no longer be able to recover.
The OP leader reminds how the USSR came to the world's energy exporters in the 1970s, taking advantage of the conflict between the Arab countries and the West. It was then that the Kremlin began to actively fund the Soviet MIC, which resulted in the invasion of Afghanistan, attempts to suppress democratic movements, in particular in Poland and others. The beginning of the end of the communist empire, according to Yermak, was 1986.
On the eve of the Government Soviet newspaper Izvestia it was published statistics, which recognized a decrease in oil production, which usually hit the level of growth of national income. These were actually temporary difficulties, according to the author, but the difficulties in the oil industry were already given. "The problem was that the old deposits were exhausted, and for the increase of production of the USSR needed Western technologies and Western money," Ermak notes.
At the same time, the author reminds that in the mid-1980s, 60% of the USSR currency income was exported to oil, despite the fact that prices on the world market have already begun to decline. The so -called power of the USSR was "broken" by two world leaders - US President Ronald Reagan and King of Saudi Arabia Faudy, who have found an understanding in opposition to the Soviet threat to world security. "The plan was simple.
Barrel oil price increased by only $ 1 annually, the USSR brought a billion dollars, but its reduction by $ 10 has led to a loss of $ 10 billion in hard currency," Yermak explains. Both major players in the oil market coordinated their actions: Saudi Arabia rapidly increased production, thereby reducing oil prices, and the United States, meanwhile, also increased production and introduced embargo on technology exports.
"Money to promote world influence by force and other hybrid methods simply ended . . . What was further - is well known. The agreement on the elimination of Medium and Small Range Missiles in 1987. Removal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan, destruction in Czechoslovakia in 1989. The Agreement on Ordinary Armed Forces in Europe in 1990. American Humanitarian Aid-Chicken "Bush's Legs"-in Moscow. And finally-the collapse of the USSR in 1991, "Ermak listed all the troubles of the Soviet Empire. .
He added that the USSR did not save even the world's largest nuclear arsenal. Recently, the Russian Federation accounted for about 60% of total exports in the Russian Federation. In addition, according to the head of the OP, this export also formed 40% of the federal government's income. "But if in the USSR budget direct oil and gas revenues did not exceed 10-11%, then in Russia in 2011-2014 they have already exceeded 50%.
And this without taking into account some revenues from the energy industry companies," the author adds. So it's time to dream of world domination, Yermak notes. He adds that such incredible income from energy exports convinced the Kremlin's owner that the world will close his eyes to Syria, Georgia, and a full -scale invasion of Ukraine. "These hundreds of billions of oil and gas income for a year nourished the Kremlin's imperialism and revanchism.
It is here that the roots of Moscow's official ultimatum on NATO's actual surrender and the return Russian MIC and new aggressive plans of Putin. According to Yermak, the sanction pressure undoubtedly has an effect, but sanctions should be "rigid and sudden so that Moscow does not have time to adapt to pressure.
" The head of the OP, who heads the International Sanction Group together with the Director of the Institute for International Research FSI, FSI, Michael McFol, believes that all EU and G7 restrictions cost the G7 countries-aggressor 113 billion dollars of export revenues since February 2022. In 2023, the Russian budget lost almost a quarter of revenues compared to 2022.
However, as emphasized Yermak, they still reached $ 102 billion, a considerable proportion of which is aimed at financing the Russian military budget. The ways of solving the problem may be the following, notes the author: however, according to Yermak, without the leadership of Saudi Arabia and the United States it is impossible to do so. "As in the 1980s, the growth of production will allow not only Moscow but also Tehran. It is the key to peace not only in Europe but also in the Middle East.
And most importantly, cheap fuel will give a new powerful impetus to the economic development of the US Allies will provide further global leadership. That is, it is not about underpassed profits. It is about investing in security and progress. Isn't it worth it? " - the head of the OP. At the same time, Focus wrote that the US oil refining plant in Delaware imported 10,000 barrels of Russian oil, using a loophole in legislation and bypassing sanctions.