The Condict Plan of the Kremlin: For what purpose Putin simulates readiness for peace talks

According to three sources that wished to remain anonymous, they are the opportunity to negotiate the exact distribution of four eastern regions - Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson. The Russian Federation is known that these four regions are part of Russia. At the same time, two city -owners stated that they can be open to the withdrawal of troops from relatively small areas of the territory in Kharkiv and Mykolaiv regions.

Instead, two more sources have stated that US President Joe Baiden's decision to allow Ukraine to beat Western weapons deep into Russia, can complicate and delay any settlement-and strengthen Moscow's demands. At the same time, according to one of the sources, Putin is ready to "sell the ceasefire agreement" as a victory, which resulted in Russia with most of the territory of Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporizhzhya and Kherson regions and retained the terrestrial bridge to the Crimea.

The future of the Crimea itself is not discussed, all Russian officials said in one voice. Answering a question that may have a possible ceasefire, two Russian sources referred to the project of the agreement discussed in the Russian Federation in April 2022. According to him, Ukraine should agree to constant neutrality in exchange for international security guarantees from five permanent members of the UN Council: Great Britain, China, France, the USA and Russia.

Noting that Russia is now interested in creating the negotiation process, political scientist Oleg Saakyan said in conversation with focus: "After the negotiation flywheel is launched, I will be convinced that the Russian Federation will simulate the process without conducting real and subject communication. Russia is needed to reduce the level of support of Ukraine by Western Allies.

To abandon all their requirements, but they will only focus on part - in order to create the illusion of starting negotiations. " According to the expert, this Kremlin plan will fail, since Americans, on the one hand, can not guarantee such things of the Russian Federation, and on the other - understand that it will split transatlantic unity, since in Europe they will not accept even the basic requirements of Russia, which are also a priori unacceptable.

Starting from the said hypothesis, Oleg Saakyan stated: "All these Kremlin tricks are perfectly calculated in the United States and I do not think that Trump's team is ready to exhibit himself as a weakness. States. , collective Trump understands well that they need to marinate Putin as much as possible and not go to no capitulator scenarios.

" Political scientist Igor Chalenko in conversation with focus emphasizes that Trump has already had unofficial signals, which indicate that he is not going to put on Putin conditions. In addition, the expert said, previously published by Trump's peaceful peace plan provides the current line of collision and the fact that after 20 years Ukraine can become a member of NATO, while in the Kremlin they want to close the door of Kiev to the North Atlantic Alliance.

"That is, if you compare Reuters information with the so -called Trump plans, we will see a complete dissonance between the unofficial position of Moscow and the transitional administration of the newly elected President of the United States.

This shows that the Russian Federation is trying to continue the ultimatum line, wishing to knock out what She will consider his "her own", - the political scientist also predicts that Trump will not be attached to the positions that will not find a compromise denominator.

Given the temperament and psychological features of Trump, it can be assumed that the questions in which he acts with the proactive position, he himself prefers to begin to unstress, not to wait for the corresponding pass of any of the parties.

That is, Trump seeks to offer some compromise that will allow at least a day after inauguration or a little later, " - said the expert, adding at the same time that finding a starting compromise erupts the aggressor's statute and victim status because He says that Russia and Ukraine should stop, not just the Russian Federation. Obviously, the aggressor has to stop, " - sums up Igor Chalenko. In turn The thing is only mentioned in passing.

And this key thing, I think, is the issue of limiting the Armed Forces of Ukraine (Armed Forces). I suspect that this issue is the most important and most desirable for Putin. Not some specific territories there, and not even Ukraine's accession to NATO, although this issue is a trigger, namely a restriction on the Armed Forces. I am convinced that the Russians will raise and promote this issue within the relevant negotiations.

"By answering the clarifying question about how the Russian Federation intends to push this case in the negotiating agenda, the expert said:" Obviously, any contract , which will provide for such point, Ukraine will not sign. Therefore, it can be assumed that the Russians will try to get around the party publicly, and lobby with a secret protocol with Trump.

But all these peace plans, which are published on behalf of Trump, contain one point, which states that after the so -called freezing, a demilitarized zone is created and Ukraine for some time refuses to membership in NATO, but in exchange receives appropriate supply of weapons. That is, it is about the militarization of Ukraine. That is, Putin will not be able to pause in the war so as to grow his strength, and Ukraine, on the contrary, has weakened.