The Trump Opportunity window is 1.5 weeks. Why does Putin not need a truce after May 9

Some cuts should be done so that it does not shake. Because hope is a two -tone thing. It saves, but can deprive immunity. As for me, the world policy is now a search for the answer to the question: Our Hegemonushka - does he see the world so or is he incapacitated? If he is a little extravagant for his purposes and practices of their achievement, it is a life. You can work with this. But if she is watching, it puts goals, tires, but cannot achieve them - it is quite different.

Suspicion of incapacity is incited that the US is ready to get out of the process of peace. Because there are two options on the table: pushing Putin to reasonable arrangements or leaving. As Ukraine has sufficiently sober and constructively marked the limits of political compromises. Without military results (which Putin is not available) to explain the deterioration of Ukraine's position, it will be a clear injustice and indulgence of the aggressor.

In order to help Putin promptly in achieving appropriate military results, the United States has at least agreed with the massacres of Ukrainian children in the rear (which Trump does not want) and introduce embargo against Ukraine. That is, it is not just to stop your own, but to block the supply of all military and all goods of double -use (which is required by Putin for "ceasefire").

There are a number of conspiracy theories that explain why Putin is needed by Trump (the torpedoing of Globalists in NATO and the EU, Greenland, clinch with China, personal gain, etc. ) why Trump avoids the long -term "peace through force" that Moscow needs to be forced. However, all these theories cannot ignore the fact: Hegemon's suspicion of incapacity is expelling all global designs. When doubts arise, the process of a billion external cuts and internal bleeding is instantly launched.

Technically, it is impossible to design force everywhere. It is impossible to convey all pathogens with your fingers. A different approach is required that requires not only material resources, but also time. This is the work of generations. Putin has already shown that Trump is not incapacitated. So far without direct conflict, but this vector. Washington gives drives for pins, getting into a senseless situation. In some places it turns into some vaudeville.

At the same time, hundreds of military bases around the world remain in the hands of the eccentric grandfather, the most cosmic group, the epic marine and air fleet, as well as many other useful devices (in economics, technologies, politics, etc. ).

Both inside and outside the United States are suspended-if the grandfather solves, he can use this makhin? Makhina listens to him? Can he not wrap someone on a nuclear, but though on some ashes? The danger of the situation is that a funnel is formed, which draws any negative with the interpretation "this is because the United States has not coped. " The port exploded in Iran - because Israel has coped and the United States did not.

India has caught up with Pakistan - because Washington no one puts in a sin. Although this may not be associated at all. Trump Putin, "Vladimir, Stop!", And he continues to kill civilians, as if nothing happened. Etc. My hypothesis is that until May 9, at least short -term de -escalation, full or partial (sectoral) ceasefire. Trump has a need and so far has the strength to provide it.

Putin needs peace on May 9, and no barriers to show flexibility (rockets still collect for three weeks, in Kursk "Victory"). That is, it is possible something that is furnished as a clear diplomatic progress. But after May 9, the situation will change for Putin until September (the second stage of celebration - in the East). He can tolerate. The risks of escalation take off. If this window does not have time, then America will not only be more difficult in Ukraine . . .