War for the future: barbaries with resources against civilization with technology

40 years ago, thinking about the future, I came to the conclusion that everything to be algorithmization will sooner or later be automated, and therefore (a) will not create jobs, and (b) will be relatively easy to reproduce anywhere in the world. In particular, industrial production, which in terms of theory is to combine information with the "carrier", its material embodiment, being automated, will become available anywhere and will be the field of the most severe competition.

As a result, it will not be especially enriched. And the main income will be in those who either (a) create unique information - innovations, etc. , or (b) has the rare natural resources necessary for the manufacture of tangible products. And this future is almost coming. Industrial production, however, is not so trouble -free, but everything goes to that. And the main struggle unfolds between post -industrial, "modern" countries with "open access", "inclusive institutions", etc.

- "civilization", on the one hand, and industrial or pre -industrial "traditional" countries with "limited access", "exclusive". The former have better conditions for generating and adapting innovation and other information, and the second system is better adapted to capture, protect and master natural resources - and is supported by a natural renta.

An example in this sense is the current conflict of the PRC and the US, where the United States depends on the supply of rare resources from the PRC (or controlled by African and other deposits), and the PRC depends on American technologies and education. Each of the parties thus holds the other by the throat. In fact, I am afraid that this situation is not particularly winning for "civilization". Civilization won the barbarians when she had inaccessible technologies (eg firearms).

And often lost when the barbarians were at the same technological level (the fall of Rome, the expansion of Genghis Khan and his heirs . . . ). Information products do not have the properties of exclusivity, so they are easy to reproduce, to "steal" (so that the "victim" does not even know) - so a real "breakthrough" is needed, which "Barbarians" will not be able to catch up.

But it is likely that they will have to sell in exchange for the resources that they are now tightly controlled (probably not only sleeping my mind as described above))). The situation is very reminiscent of "war with salamandra", where people sold reptiles tools and murder also in exchange for fossil resources . . . I cannot offer a ready decision yet, we need to think . . . The author expresses a personal opinion that may not coincide with the editorial position.