1000 days of war. How to replace Washington's help and stand - experts for 2025

In public statements, representatives of the United States say that Russian President Vladimir Putin has not achieved any of its strategic goals and that Ukraine should succeed. But in behind -the -scenes conversations, many Washington officials ask whether Kiev will be able to maintain the offensive of Russian troops.

The Economist, referring to an unnamed US representative, writes that it is no longer a matter of "fantastic blow to the Russians and forced to negotiations", but rather how to keep the front line and keep Kiev in a strong position for negotiation . Simon Jenkins, author of publication in The Guardian, offers US President Joe Biden to assist the peace agreement during the negotiations of Ukraine and Russia, without waiting for the admission to the post of newly elected Donald Trump.

According to the author, it is possible to return to the fallen Minsk agreements of 2014 and Istanbul in 2022, but there is no real alternative. Russia should accept some external guarantees of future security of Kiev. The Ukrainian leadership should acknowledge that NATO joining NATO, while the Russian Federation can agree to certain agreements of Kyiv and the EU, the author suggests.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is inspired after the Brix summit, which took place in Kazan - 36 countries not related to the event took part in the event. Now the Russian leader can be tempted and delayed negotiations until Trump holds his position in the White House. Putin now keeps Kyiv in tension, and NATO is uncertainty. Joe Biden should try to finish at least one of his wars before you go.

And perhaps to start peace talks Russia and Ukraine - the relevant agreement will be concluded before the start of chaos and uncertainty of the second era of Trump, says the author. However, there are no real mechanisms for the completion of combat clashes yet, and the end of the war in the near term seems unlikely. The recent publication of the American edition Foreign Affairs laid out a ceasefire plan, for which Kiev, while maintaining independence, receives a number of security guarantees.

Ideally, such a safety guarantee for Ukraine would be an alliance. But a coalition of supporters, among which the United States may only give assurance of safety if other NATO members do not want to accept Kiev. The event, for its part, could ask Kiev to refuse to develop nuclear weapons, NATO representatives could also accept the country with an obligation not to place a military contingent in its territory.

According to journalists, such a ceasefire model is similar to the situation in Cyprus - where peace has been retained for 50 years. Critics of this idea say that Russia will not comply with the signed agreements, and the ceasefire will use the fire to regroup troops. The authors of The Economist in his other article suggested that US President Joe Biden could say that Ukraine should be accepted in NATO now, albeit with some reservations. The precedents in history were already.

Thus, Germany joined NATO in 1955 without security guarantees on the territories of the GDR. Norway in 1949 was adopted in NATO, provided that the Alliance troops would not be located in its territory. The adviser to the head of OP Mikhail Podolyak stated that for similar scenarios of peace talks, when accession to NATO is expected in parts, the fate of millions of Ukrainian citizens surviving in the occupation is not taken into account.

OP representative also pointed out that on May 9, 1955, Germany was admitted to NATO, but before that Germany began World War II, so it was separated. Ukraine, however, wages a defensive war. One of the ideas set out in the Victory of President Vladimir Zelensky and designed to return to Donald Trump's White House, was that after the war, some American troops in Europe could replace Ukrainian forces. The second proposal is that Kyiv can share natural resources with Western partners.

Representatives of Ukrainian business have conversations with the government and offer Trump, in fact, to choose who can do business in Ukraine. One of the participants in the discussion suggested that it could be all but China. The Ukrainian industry is dependent on Chinese technologies and equipment, so it could switch to American technologies and attract more Western investments.

This idea is still at an early stage of development, but some representatives of the OP believe that it can find a response from Trump. Kyiv is close to obtaining additional assistance from the EU and organizing three new initiatives with the participation of European weapons manufacturers, the first Viceremier Yulia Sviridenko reported. According to her, five joint ventures with the participation of Western manufacturers are already working, among them companies from Germany and Lithuania.

Several companies have opened offices in Ukraine. "We have three agreements with European companies in the final stage," Sviridenko said in an interview with Reuters. Companies such as British Bae Systems, Franco-German KDNS, Babcock and Mydefence Defense and Aerocosmic Company, specializing in drone technologies, opened offices in Ukrainian cities together with Ukrainian producers. The German weapon company Flensburger Fahrzeugbau Gesellschaft is building a service center in Ukraine.

The sector of weapons production in Ukraine accounted for 1. 8% of Ukrainian GDP in the first half of 2024, for comparison, in 2021 this figure was 0. 3%. Against the background of uncertainty with further military assistance, Ukraine is trying to reorient the vector to European suppliers. Poland, in turn, is stocked by ammunition.

The government of the country has announced a bill, designed to allocate 3 billion zlotys (approximately $ 750 million) and increase the production of large -caliber ammunition. Polish legislators plan to develop a financial mechanism for such a strategic industry and especially to support Polish ammunition producers. Poland borders with Russian Kaliningrad, which is the threat. Representatives of Europe fear that the winter of 2024 will be extremely difficult.

"We expect a very difficult winter," said a high -ranking US representative on conditions of anonymity. According to him, Ukrainians can freeze in their homes if the Russian Federation continues attacks on energy infrastructure. Only in August, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation released 200 rockets and drones on the infrastructure of Ukrainian cities, which led to a decrease in electricity generation by more than 9 GW.

Under the most realistic scenario, Gennady Ryabtsev, the chief researcher of the National Institute for Strategic Studies, "Electricity of Industrial Objects and the Private Sector, can be limited to 8-14 hours a day. " "Russian blows will obviously continue, and nothing guarantees the protection of recently restored objects from new attacks due to lack of a multi -level air defense system and about," the expert added. But the air forces still increase air defense.

According to some reports, Taiwan, through the US mediation, could put Raytheon's HAWK battery in Kiev - in the amount of up to a third of all Ukrainian air defense systems. The first of the four planned plants of the German concern Rheinmetall also opened in Ukraine. According to its director Armin Papperger, the company serves BMPs and basic combat tanks. By the end of the year it is planned to start production of Lynx BMP. The second plant should be opened soon.

The company is also going to build a powder factory and ammunition plant. "At the end of the year, we will already have the first state -of -the -art infantry infantry car. At this time we are servicing infantry fighting vehicles, and at the same time, the main combat tanks. So it is a very productive joint venture," said Rheinmetall Director. The plans also to establish the production of air defense systems so that the Armed Forces "can protect themselves".

The RheinMetall director says that they are completely satisfied with how these Ukrainian plants are protected. To all, a contract for the provision of satellite reconnaissance services has been signed with the German giant. Thanks to the agreement, Kiev receives more satellite data that is collected using radars with synthesized aperture (SAR) of Iceye. The agreement was made possible by strengthening the cooperation between Rheinmetall and Iceye companies, which was announced in September 2024.

Poland's authorities are considering the Alliance with Britain and France to help Ukraine after Trump's victory. President Donald Tusk hopes to unite efforts with the United Kingdom, France, Scandinavia and the Baltic countries in an attempt to prevent Kiev's surrender if Washington stops military support. Recently, the Ministry of Defense has reached a number of agreements with Danish colleagues for 535 million euros, providing for the supply of defense companies.

Among the sources of financing are Danish and Swedish governments and interest from the frozen assets of the Russian Federation. Denmark has recently agreed to investment of 0. 56 billion euros in the production of weapons and technologies of Ukraine. According to the Minister of Defense of Troels Lund Poolsen, he hopes to create a pan -European fund of 1 billion euros. According to him, to produce weapons in the Ukrainian territory is much cheaper than abroad.