Trade War of Ukraine and Poland: Top 5 questions to know the answer

Ukraine's relations with several EU countries, including Poland, are exacerbated by the ban on the import of agricultural products. Focus learned about the causes of the conflict and possible scenarios of further action. The European Commission has not continued the ban on importing Ukrainian grain into the European Union. However, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Moravetsky said that since September 16, his country will introduce an embargo on Ukrainian grain.

"We will continue the ban on importing Ukrainian grain despite the disagreement of the EC. We will not listen to Berlin, we will not listen to von Der Lyen, Tusk or Weber. We will do it in the interests of the Polish farmer," Moravtsky said. Meanwhile, not only Poland wants to continue the prohibition on import of Ukrainian agro -products. In Slovakia and Hungary, the positions that domestic farmers should be protected from products from Ukraine.

For example, according to the Prime Minister of Slovakia, Louis Odora, the ban on the import of Ukrainian products will act in Slovakia by the end of 2023, in order to "prevent excessive pressure on the Slovak market to remain fair to domestic farmers. " In Hungary, it is also said that the borders for Ukrainian agricultural products are not going to open.

According to the Minister of Agriculture of Hungary Istwan Nadia, Hungary in general wants to close its borders for 24 Ukrainian goods, including grain, rape, sunflower, flour, oil, honey, eggs and meat. In Ukraine, the neighbors are not going to put up with a rather unfriendly position.

According to the Deputy Minister of Economy in an interview with Politico, the Trade Representative of Ukraine Taras Kachka, Ukraine will start the procedure for filing a claim to the World Trade Organization (WTO) against Poland, Hungary and Slovak Decision of the European Commission. Focus was looking for answers to important questions related to the ban on EU countries on import of Ukrainian agricultural products.

The reaction of the Polish government and small European countries was quite predictable, says economic expert, ex-members of the NBU Council Vitaliy Shapran. "Instead of building transport corridors to Gdansk, to take our agricultural products to the Baltic region, responsible people in the government of Ukraine were engaged in a god -owned something, leaving agribusiness alone with the problem.

Poland's market - is quite saturated, there are manufacturers, markets of Hungary, markets, markets, markets. Slovakia and Bulgaria are quite small, they are not able to withstand the invasion of our raw materials and food, " - says Vitaliy Shapran. In his opinion, the Bulgaria government is still defense but is under a frantic pressure of local farmers.

"The problem should be solved dramatically, not threatening the courts of our friends and small markets, where the population of the whole country is only 2-3 times more than the population of Kiev," the expert is convinced. He believes that our partners need to be selectively, and we should go to arbitration against Hungary.

But the interest of Poland and Slovakia is that our products are not infused into their markets, and this should be used solely as a tool to attract them to the construction of transit corridors. "Economy is a business, so it is worth sitting at the negotiating table and looking for common interests, not waving checkers, especially since we have anyone to wave," the expert is convinced.

According to financial analyst Andriy Shevchyshyn, Ukraine goes the right way, trying to defend the interests of Ukrainian producers, in particular through WTO arbitration. "We need to resolve the issue of exporting agricultural products to the EU. We do not have a lot of choice for export or transit, except to direct our grain to Europe. Is it exported through the Black Sea through the protection that Ukraine submits to arbitration is a civilized path.

However, Ukraine's application can be considered there for years. But something needs to be done, " - says Andriy Shevchyshyn. Of course, the fact that companies lose part of the European market have a bad effect on their financial condition and the levels of taxes they pay to the state budget. Moreover, the situation is difficult, because in July the grain corridor in the Black Sea stopped acting because the Russian Federation refused to continue participation in the so -called "grain agreement".

But experts say that in the end, the problematic situation with the import of agricultural products to the European Union can still be corrected - the main thing is to resort to active diplomatic work on the involvement of ports on the Baltic Sea for the export of Ukrainian products to other regions - European countries that still buy Ukrainian agricultural products and countries Africa and Asia.

"Logistics is very expensive, storage problems with companies, and it is already known that some agro -companies have financial difficulties, many companies of the sector have been affected by both shelling and from products with products, companies need working capital. %. Harvests in Ukraine are good, expectations were worse. Until the agricultural sector will lose, but such a prospect exists, "says Andriy Shevchyshyn.

"It depends on the activity of the government and the speed of reaction, the year our leaders have already lost, whereby the corridor to Gdansk worked this summer, then the Russians would not have economic meaning so bomb the port infrastructure in the south of Ukraine, and and negotiations on the grain corridor would have passed faster. The corridor to the Baltic region is a strategic step that will make Ukrainian exporters stronger than before the war.

Obviously, we have already lost the status of a transit state, we have to somehow compensate for, the corridor to the Baltic region will help us, "Shapran says. Currently, it is a certain list of agricultural products, however, of course, some countries may, given the "protection of the domestic manufacturer", increase the number of prohibited Ukrainian products. Europeans can expand the list of prohibited products.

Hungary has already banned both Ukrainian eggs and flour from Ukraine "Yes, it is very likely that the same step will take Bulgaria and other countries. In order to localize the effect of this problem, you need to agree with Poland about the corridor to Gdansk, and with the European Commission on its funding At the expense of the EC Budget and the European Investment Bank (EIB), it is necessary to do this urgently.

For the period of construction with Poland and other countries, you can sign a temporary agreement on a special period where to set limits for the supply of our agricultural products to their markets. I think this approach will work with All except Hungary, where Ukraine is specific to Ukraine, "Vitaly Shapran said. Experts are convinced that before the end of the war, the problem of export of Ukrainian agro -products will continue.

However, after the war, difficulties are possible, because EU countries are unlikely to give way to their share of Europe's agricultural market in favor of Ukrainian producers. "The best way is to form products. There are large reserves of grain, rapeseed, we can process it all. We need to go in this direction, develop processing," - says Andriy Shevchyshyn.

According to Vitaliy Shapran, it is time to invest in processing of their raw materials and make the value added of their product line, and the final product was focused on the end consumer. "There is no other option," the expert is sure.

Impact on domestic prices already exists, experts surveyed by focus say, the ban on the export of agricultural products presses on prices - they are reduced, in particular, they are cheaper for poultry and livestock, which can partially affect the situation with meat prices, the growth of which will soon be suspended . "The risks of agricultural companies are now too high, the accumulation of products in warehouses is pressing on prices in the domestic market," says Andriy Shevchyshyn.

According to Vitaliy Shapran, an increase in agricultural products in warehouses in Ukraine presses on domestic market prices, and the situation is quite dangerous and requires government attention. "It is possible to offer manufacturers to buy part of the grain from the State Reserve, including at the expense of grants from our international partners. This situation will not last long. First, the Russians are no longer controlling the Black Sea as at the beginning of aggression.

-Secondly, Turkey, as a member of NATO, will continue pressure on the Russians, and they have something to press, not only grain trucks pass through the Bosphorus. So, either the Armed Forces or the Erdogan will be wandered by the Russians, "Vitaly Shapran summarized. We will remind, in Bulgaria farmers came to protest due to the continuation of import of agricultural products from Ukraine.