"The dictator is no longer so sure." When Putin's apparatus "gets" the owner and what causes the social protest of the Russians. Interview

- Let's try to understand: what happened and how do we need to evaluate those phrases of Putin that they have lost nothing and will not lose anything? Previously, he said that in Ukraine it is necessary to change the government and there is no Ukraine, now he has the words that they were only going to help some "peoples of Donbass".

How to characterize these changes? Video of the day-first, Vladimir Putin in this case still continues to play on his own field-the field of information manipulation. He always succeeds. This time, I am sure he will succeed - Russian society will eat it. The question is that the resource of trust in Russian society in its power depends on the level to which the representative of the authorities corresponds to.

If Putin is already in such a bad light as a person who lost war, this level of trust will be reduced and very sharply. And changing its rhetoric is an attempt to change the focus of attention of your own audience. In fact, all rhetoric was generally directed to the domestic consumer, the viewer within Russia. And for the propagandists, for this huge agitapproppup apparatus, it was very important for the Russians to focus on the issues where it was needed.

He has been trying to overlap the fact that they have not acquired anything. - And yet this phrase that "we have not even started" in terms of hostilities, we only try to finish. He then publicly acknowledged that they began the war in 2014, although he said that it was some miners and tractors.

Does Russian society have a memory like goldfish and will not pay attention to such little things? - On the surface, everything happens: Russian society shows a very short memory, it very quickly forgets those theses that have been said. But all this continues only until society is confident in its grandeur; While they are convinced that their leader really leads them somewhere that they have again pushed the damn "pindos" and so on.

While they understand that they and their leader are responsible for some categories of grandeur, everything is normal, they will have a short memory. As soon as they feel lost, they will start to turn on the mechanisms that will develop their criticism, distrust of power. We are already starting to watch some of these trends. For example, recently, the appeal of the deputies of Smolninsky district of St. Petersburg on the removal of Putin.

I am not sure that it is true, but the very fact of the appearance of such an appeal in Russia is evidence that the feeling of distrust is deepened and increased. - Did you not seem that Putin did not look as confident as at the beginning of their invasion? It is already noticeable whether it is nervous, whether it is paniking, or simply uncertainty. He is a little "chopped" there, as they say in Russia, but it looks a little. - Indeed, I agree with you. Putin begins to look not so confident.

He really begins to show signs of excitement, and sometimes over -self -confidence. - Is this such a compensatory? - Exactly. - "I got completely, but let's tell you that on the contrary, I won everyone. " - So. Moreover, it worked before. By this point, as soon as he made some false decision (and there were a lot), he turned on his full coil this compensatory rhetoric, began to tell that "it is actually" the forces of self -defense of Crimea.

" He turns to this lie very often, this method uses constantly. But as soon as the case begins to fall apart, it launches this tool already on the full coil, begins to gas where it is necessary to reduce the speed and to control this machine closely. And this immediately means that something goes really wrong. Lately, Putin is not so confident. Although, again, first, we have very little information because it was a closed person, so it remains.

And secondly, it is necessary to consider our mood with you. When we want to see some signs… - frightened Putin, we will look and look for these signs. - Exactly. - Russian society gradually begins to pass all stages of acceptance, but before they have objections, bargaining, and depression. At what stage is Putin now? From what you said, I see that he is at the stage of denial: we have not lost anything and we will not lose anything.

But is it still the beginning of the process? - This is the beginning of the process. [There are] five groups of grief work. There is a huge number of signs that indicate that a person gradually moves from one phase to another. Indeed, Putin is now stuck somewhere in the first stage.

In general, the whole strategy of his behavior indicates that it is easier for him to get stuck somewhere at the beginning, not to move on, because it will be a very great psycho -emotional personal loss for Putin himself. In order to accept what is happening, it must go from the stage of denial to the stage of aggression. And he was already going on. He should then go to the stage of trading - he was sometimes on it.

Next, there should be a stage of depression, and it returns to the stage of denial again. That is, it moves in a circle and cannot escape from it. The fact that he is pressed by these pads excludes it from the mode of real information. He is not in the real world [lives], but in the world of folders and reports. This all leads to the fact that it is simply forced to constantly be in the stage of denial. This denial depends to a large extent capacity and its apparatus.

If they only see that their master begins to demonstrate signs of weakness (and anything that is not related to the feeling of victory, they can perceive as the weakness of their own leader), they will be the first and devour. And he understands it, because the structure of Russian power has not changed for centuries. The leader should be strong, right, must constantly win. As soon as he begins to lose, there is some Tabacker or officer boss.

- That is, if you are not superhuman, but just a person, you will suffocate you. Speaking of sociopsychological moods in the population. Social networks say that there is no panic, on the one hand. On the other hand, there are already many reproaches, "what we have with command", and "what about the Russian army, which did not understand how Ukrainians in Kharkiv have advanced, and also in Kherson region.

" And the Carnegie Foundation now says that the level of war support, according to them, is already declining in the Russian Federation. - Yes, it really happens. Although the level of support is still high. - More than half of the population still wants the cannon meat to die in Ukraine. - Exactly. Moreover, I want to tell you that this level of support is not just declining. There are different age categories and now I see that the level of support among people 55+ years reaches 55%.

And the lowest level of support is [in the group] 25-39 years, there are 37%. That is, age groups have different perception of what is happening. But we should remember that any surveys in the Russian Federation are not accurate now. A huge number of people continue to abandon any surveys, so it is very difficult to say whether these surveys are representative. We only know that formally Russians largely support the war and this trend is still winning.

We know that the oldest age group supports the war. - Because they will not be taken to the military enlistment office. - Exactly. And what happens not on the surface, but somewhere in the depths of society, no one knows, not even this society. This is the biggest problem of Russian society: they do not realize themselves, any data about their condition are distorted.

- What do we need to understand the trends we have already described? Two days ago, an article signed by two Ukrainian generals appeared: the Commander -in -Chief of the Armed Forces Valery Zaluzhny and the Deputy Chairman of the Parliamentary Committee Mikhail Zabrodsky. There is one of the thesis - Russian society feels the price of war when it will be transferred to the Russian territory. The Crimeans have already begun to understand something after cotton.

Belgorod was sitting without water and electricity yesterday in the morning, and the air defense worked as if they were knocked down. But there is a dilemma: on the one hand, if the Russians feel the war, they will be more aware of it. But on the other hand, there is a notion that they will then demand that the hostilities continue and that a general mobilization and something else are announced there.

How would you describe how this dilemma can develop? - It is very difficult to say, again, because we do not have accurate data. We can assume that these trends will enhance the splitting of society, that different groups can begin to behave in a diametrically opposite way. Groups of hawks will inevitably appear that will vote for strengthening armed conflict and mobilizing, finally destroying Ukraine. The groups that will scream "the Kriva", such pigeons, will certainly appear.

National groups will certainly appear. The Russian Federation is a very large and very disorganized structure. It is maintained on vertical integration and strong centralized power. As soon as this power begins to demonstrate signs of weakness, various social contradictions that are enough in Russia begin to come to the surface. What exactly will come to the surface in the first place, which in the second - it is very difficult to say, because there are no data.

And this is not even a problem for us, not for Europeans and Americans, it is a problem of Russians, because they do not understand what awaits them. But something is waiting, it is for sure, because social problems begin to intensify and deepen in such times uncertainty and feeling of losing. The Russian Empire has not gone anywhere in the last century. As soon as this organization, this country feels a loss, and social protests are exacerbated inside.