There will be no peace on Putin. How can the event help Ukraine to win Russia as quickly as possible - the new cover of The Economist

How Ukraine Win Win). Video of the day on the magazine website The same publication is called the war of Vladimir Putin. The event should help it happen faster (Vladimir Putin's War is Failing. The West Should Help It Fail Fail).

NV provides a complete translation of the material, although some of the abstracts may seem controversial to the Ukrainian audience - for example, about the distinction between Russian dictator Vladimir Putin and the people of the Russian Federation, much of which supports the war against Ukraine.

*** Among the numerous reasons that Vladimir Putin justified the invasion of the neighboring country, was the thesis that Ukraine and Russia were allegedly one nation, which should be united under its "merciful" rule. "Do you still think we are one people?" Asked the President of Ukraine when thousands of Russian invaders from Kharkiv region were knocked out this week. The triumphal sarcasm of Vladimir Zelensky is justified.

The Kharkiv counter -offensive, which began on September 5, marks the most dramatic reversal of Russia since at the end of March Putin refused to seize Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine. Its value is not only in the liberation of 6,000 square kilometers in a few days (more than Russia has won in the previous five months). And not even admiration for Ukraine tanks, guns and boxes with ammunition that Russian soldiers left during a disorderly escape.

Ukraine also returned two transport units, Izum and Kupyansk, which are needed by Russia if it wants to complete the conquest of Donbass and "integrate" it into the Russian Federation. Putin's plans to carry out fake "referendums" about the annexation of occupied parts of the South and East of Ukraine is now postponed as Ukraine is contracted in both regions. To make forecasts during the war is always risky, but the situation seems to have changed.

The Russian occupation can be restrained everywhere, while Ukraine gradually - and sometimes suddenly - rolls it back. Ukraine's successes on the battlefield are based on two pillars: technology and people. With regard to technology, its advantage is constantly increasing. America and other friendly states have provided Ukraine with missiles that have sufficient range and accuracy to change the conditions on the battlefield.

Ukraine is able to see and steadily impress ammunition depots, command points and enemy logistics units far beyond the front line; Russia is not capable. The expected advantage of Russia in the air was suppressed by mobile air defense. And while Russia is depleting its arms reserves, Ukraine's stocks are becoming more and more powerful, as the excellent NATO equipment replaces its old weapons of the Warsaw Treaty. Ukraine's advantage is also increasing.

The initial forces of the Putin Army invasion of about 200,000 people have never been sufficient to occupy all of Ukraine. (Obviously, he imagined that Ukraine's resistance would fall. Despite the raids on prisons and the promises of huge payments, Putin is difficult to compensate for the loss. Ukraine, on the contrary, can count on the entire adult male population. Their [Armed Forces] morale goes crazy, they are well equipped and are undergoing better training - thanks to NATO.

They will only gain confidence when Russia sway. They fight for their homes and their fellow citizens. Russian troops are fighting for a package of lies: that Ukraine is ruled by the Nazis that it is a threat to Russia that its people want Russia to "free it". Theoretically, Putin could declare general mobilization and send much more young Russians to battle; However, he knows that it will be an extremely unpopular solution and therefore has not yet taken such a step.

But even if he did it, it would take many months to recruit, teach, equip and deploy such a frightened and reluctant [before the war] reinforcement. The victory of Ukraine has not yet been determined, but the path to it is already planned. It will be difficult to completely expel Russia from Ukraine. This means the need to displace it from the territories where the Russian Federation is rooted much better and more organized than in the Kharkiv region.

The general collapse of the Russian forces is not excluded, but unlikely. Therefore, the event should consolidate success. Ukraine has shown that it can use Western weapons to return its territory - now the event should be provided with even better weapons, such as the ATACMS long -range missiles for HIMARS, which have proven efficiency - they have not yet dared to supply them [Ukraine]. In order to avoid escalation, NATO's advanced weapons should not be used for purposes in Russia.

Ukraine will probably agree to adhere to [such a condition] - instead of pushing off its weapons suppliers. She will also need a reliable flux of ammunition for future offenses and armored vehicles for rapid throwing of troops. In addition, the event should be considered that Ukraine may need next year, and significantly expand the scale of training of Ukrainian servicemen abroad. The momentum during the war can be self -sufficient.

If Ukrainians in the occupied cities believe that the occupiers will remain there for a long time, some of them may eventually put up with it or even go for collaboration. If they believe that the Russians will be expelled in a few months, their motivation will be the opposite: the resistance participants will expect that they will be on the side of the winners; And collaborators - who will sit behind the lattice.

Therefore, the more stolen land will lose Russia, the harder it will be to keep other territories. Even more reasons in Europe to resist Putin's energy blackmail. Since it has blocked the supply of Russian gas, European governments have promised to make every effort to allow their citizens to freeze this winter, despite the fact that they comb the world in search of alternative suppliers of energy.

It is possible to argue about the details of politics, but the main thing is to maintain solidarity contrary to pain [from the blows of the Russian Federation]. Meanwhile, a carefully cultivated Aura of Putin's "invincibility" is already cracking. He suppressed most of dissent, but concern is still spreading. Hawk voices [so -called. "War Parties" in the Russian Federation] criticize the war.

The Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, whose people participated in the war and terrorized Ukrainians, called the situation on the places of "official". One of the nationalists delicately suggested on Russian television that Putin has bad advisers. Several brave local politicians in Moscow and St. Petersburg even urged the Kremlin owner to resign. The Russian economy has shifted sanctions better than expected, but gradually stagnant, and the prices for Russia have fallen.

The event should try to kill a wedge between the regime and the Russian people. Western leaders should be emphasized that it is a hatred with Putin, not with his citizens. Western countries should greet Russian defectors, especially the most educated. The Russians who serve the regime, on the contrary, need to be denied visas.