2025 - the strength of Russia's strength: what problems hung over the Kremlin regime

I like to read not dictatorial reports, but to collect news from open sources and make puzzles. So here. Our enemy is not very good, and 2025 - the last year of "strength". So, what is happening there, a name: high inflation: according to the end of 2024, inflation in Russia reached 9. 6%, which is significantly higher than the target of the central bank.

Causes: weakening of the ruble, growth of state expenditures (war and subsidies), lack of labor resources, loss of export markets of energy sales, printing of money (the money supply has increased by 20% per year, because there is not enough money in the budget). As a result, a record high key rate: the Russian Central Library was forced to raise a key rate up to 21% to combat inflation, which adversely affects economic growth.

As a result, loans were flew to 25%, including a mortgage that almost died. Budget deficit: In 2024, the Russian budget deficit exceeded the planned values ​​more than twice, reaching about 3. 3 trillion rubles. And this is almost 10% of budget expenditures. It is projected that it will be stored until 2025, with the expectation of a shortage of about 8 trillion rubles (!). This is due to the increase in the cost of war and to the detriment of social programs.

And this is almost 20% (!) From the planned budget expenditures. Where will they take the money? The $ 176 billion defense costs are officially planned for 2025, which is 41% of the federal budget (!). Economists are concerned about Russia's ability to finance such expenses without significant borrowing (but who will give them?), Considering limited reserves and lack of access to international capital markets. Slowing Economic Growth: GDP growth decreases from 3. 9% in 2024 to 2. 5% in 2025 and 2.

6% in 2026 (and if you remember that neither Putin nor Russian statistics can be believed , most likely, growth will be close to "zero"). And here is a fresh forecast: it is expected that growth will be less than 1%. Reduction of gas exports: termination of supplies to Western Europe of pipeline gas will reduce Russian exports to the EU in 2025 by 14 billion cubic meters. m4. The fall in the European market: the share of Russian gas in the import of EU fell from 45% in 2021 to 15% in 2023.

And with the cessation of transit through Ukraine, the share of Russian gas in the European market will be up to 5% (!) The need to reorient to Asian markets and even greater dependence of "Great" Russia on China. And at the same time she needs to reorient her supply to Asian markets, which requires significant investment in infrastructure.

Innovation lags: despite some achievements, Russia continues to lag in key technological industries through sanctions and restricted access to Western technologies (in particular, technologies for intensification of energy production, semiconductors and various types of electronics and software, machine tools, components for aircraft and more). Low R&D costs: Russia's expenses for research and development remain low compared to leading innovative economies.

In particular, Russia spends about 1%of GDP on science and ranks 43rd in the world ranking, which is leading Israel (6%), South Korea (5. 2%). Poverty increase: Despite official statements about income growth, the real poverty of the population is increasing due to high inflation.

Increasing social inequality: there is a growing gap between rich and poor, which creates a social tension of the health care problem: inaccessibility of quality medical care remains an acute problem, especially for the elderly (and indeed, why do they are preparing to save on pensions. ). Corruption: Despite the official statements on the fight against corruption, it remains a serious problem that would undermine public administration.

Excessive centralization: the concentration of power and resources at the Federal Center reduces the efficiency of management at the regional level. Dependence on raw material exports: Russia's economy continues to depend strongly on oil and gas exports, which makes it vulnerable to fluctuations in world prices (in 2024, more than 31% of budget revenues are the oil and gas sector). Insufficient development of high -tech industries: the proportion of high -tech products in export remains low. 1.

A analytical center close to the Kremlin predicts the "quiet crisis" in the economy of Russia (from the second half of 2024). - The nominal acceleration of the growth of the loan portfolio of banks, its real dynamics slows down due to the increase in inflation. "This is already a sign of future cooling," analysts write.

In Russia, the likelihood of a banking crisis, a fall in asset quality and a formal crisis is only a matter of time, it is said in a fresh analytical note of the Macroeconomic Analysis Center and short -term forecasting (CMACP). The following signs are signaled about the future crisis, CMACP is considered: 2. A high key rate can provoke stagflation, that is, an economic decline and a collapse of investment.

This is stated in the note of the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and short -term forecasting (CMACP) "On the risks of stagflation in the Russian economy". 3. The State RFPI - the Russian direct investment fund - is being prepared at unusable prices to buy the share of Russian companies that do not cope with the increased lending rate and increased debt service costs. 4. In 2024, more than 86% of organizations collided with staff in Russia, and other% - 91%. The total deficit is estimated at 4.

8 million. 5. Compared to September 2023, the demand for a mortgage for ready -made housing in the regions decreased by 57%. 6. The Russian real estate market goes into stagnation through high rates. This is only a quick analysis of events that occur in Russia and show that not everyone has as good as they show in official sources. The author expresses a personal opinion that may not coincide with the editorial position. Responsibility for published data in the "Thought" section is borne by the author.