According to CNN, obtained from the analysis of satellite images, the plant has undergone a significant expansion: dozens of new buildings appeared, including production shops and dormitories for workers. Satellite images from the end of 2024 to July 2025 show construction of at least eight new warehouses, some of which are still erected.
The residential premises for the workers were also significantly expanded: if there were 15 hostels in February 2025, then by July 12, their number increased to 104. After the construction is completed, these structures will be able to accommodate up to 40 thousand workers, which will greatly speed up drones. There is information that even teenagers are involved in the preparation of drones and construction work. The intensity of attacks by drones on Ukraine has reached an unprecedented level.
In June 2025, Russia launched almost 5,500 Shahhed or their analogues, which is 16 times higher than June 2024. The record was recorded on July 9, when 728 drones were issued in one night. According to the newspaper, Alabuga has completely moved from the use of Iranian Shahaneda technology to localized production. The plant became self -sufficient: aluminum bars are made of engines, from the set chips - microelectronics, and fuselages - fiberglass.
The CEO of the Timur Shagivaleev plant said that the volume of production of drones-Kamikadze "Geranium" (Russian version of Shahd 136) increased nine times compared to the previous indicators. In 2024 it was planned to release 10 thousand UAV "Herbera". Production expansion allows Russia not only to use drones in the war against Ukraine, but also to plan their exports.
According to David Albright, the former UN inspector of the weapons, Russia is aimed at long -term contracts and further increasing the issue of drones. The military-political observer of the "Information Resistance" group Alexander Kovalenko stressed that the expansion of the production of "shahas" in Elabuz will have a significant impact on the course of the war against Ukraine, but only after some time.
Increasing the release of drones will allow Russia to scale its attacks, which can complicate the situation on the front. In particular, the increase in the production of shock drones of the Russian Federation will be gradually, without sharp jumps. According to him, Russia has a technological ability to increase the output of finished products by about 10%on a monthly basis.
In particular, according to Kovalenko, the Russian MIC to accelerate this process, it is necessary to complete the creation of new production centers, to establish conveyor lines and to ensure their stable work. However, there is an important condition: the businesses where drones are made should remain intact. "If there are powerful blows, such as missiles or other means, plans to expand production can be torn off," says Focus expert.
According to the calculations of the military expert Pavel Zrozhny, which refers to the GUR of Ukraine, Russia produces about 3 thousand drones a month, but has ambitious plans to increase this figure to 5-10 thousand. In the case of such volumes, Russia will be able to carry out massive attacks using 1-1. 5 thousand drones for one start, which can occur every three to five days. However, not all these drones will be "Shahaned" - some of them are fake designed for distraction. For example, out of 1.
5 thousand drones in start -up, only about 750 can be real "shamed". According to the Urozhny, despite Russia's attempts to localize production, 60-70% of the components for Shahmed are supplied by China. "The question is whether China wants to provide such supply volumes necessary to scale production. For Russia, the need to increase drones is obvious, because it is a key element of its military strategy," the expert added in conversation with focus.
Oleksandr Kovalenko believes that the expansion of ShahED-136 opens the possibility of exporting these drones to Russia to Russia that do not have their own capacity for their manufacture. Exports of weapons is an important source of currency in the Russian budget, which can partially compensate for economic difficulties. "Currently, the financial resource that Russia receives from internal sources, in particular through taxation, does not allow it to wage war at a much broader level.
The Russian economy is experiencing a shortage of" living "currency needed to support large -scale military operations. The production of drones that Russia is currently being waged. other countries, "the expert said. In his opinion, potential buyers of "Shahamed" can become Africa, such as the Central African Republic or Burkina Faso, as well as Venezuela, where Nicholas Maduro may be interested in the purchase of such drones.
At the same time, North Korea is unlikely to become a client of Russian defense, as it already has its own production of similar drones, which, incidentally, are copies of Iranian and Russian developments. Kovalenko warns that Shahanedov's exports can have serious consequences for international security. The increase in the production of shock drones in Russia not only increases its position in the war against Ukraine, but also creates new challenges for global security.
The spread of these drones through export can destabilize the situation in different regions, where they can be used in local conflicts or for terrorist purposes. Russia, using its technological advantage in this area, can strengthen its impact in countries seeking access to cheap and efficient weapons. "Unlike Iran, which develops different types of drones-Kamikadze, Russia has concentrated its efforts exclusively on" Shahmed ".
Today it produces these drones in much larger volume than Iran, especially after Israeli blows in Iranian plants. Dronov-Kamikadze in the world market, ”the observer summed up. According to Pavel Nazhny, Russia can sell its drones to countries for which international sanctions do not matter, but which seek to use weapons for pressure on neighbors. Potential buyers include Iran, Yemen and other states that support terrorist regimes.
India may also be interested in India, as it already purchases Russian oil, helicopters and artillery systems. However, the main clients are likely to be countries that are not afraid of sanctions and are ready to use drones for aggressive actions. Recall that the Armed Forces reduces units that use terrestrial robotic complexes. All because the military refuses to work with them.
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