Who will fight in Ukraine: Russia is reducing the number of regions capable of pulling out war

The war continues to heat internal contradictions in Russia, and the strikes on the refinery contribute to this. In this regard, the analyst Alexei Kopitko states that the regions that have traditionally supplied the "cannon meat" to the Ukrainian front, already begin not to cope with Rosneft "Rosneft" today joined the "election campaign" in the Russian Federation. Novosakhtynsky took a evidence position. The network multiplies the impact of fuel infrastructure on the situation in Russia.

In this regard, it is interesting to repel hypotheses about the consequences that go beyond the economy. As of now, my hypothesis is that the phrase-generalization in Russia gradually becomes incorrect in itself. The perception of the Russian Federation as an indivisible whole distorts ideas. Outside, the giant spot on the map) looks like a monolithic ear that united around the king, faith and the common fate of the Fatherland.

But if you translate this picture into a "layer" mode, you can see that the contradictions between the regions accumulate inside. The war works as a catalyst. Therefore, all important processes and consequences should be prepared at the federal and regional level. Then interesting stories jump out. If grossly, there are several main groups of regions now according to the "attraction in the war" criterion: when you add a variable "mobilization" to this picture, interesting trends are illuminated.

The other day, RIA "Novosti" has published a traditional rating of population consolidation in the context of regions. It is built so as not to reveal the entire drama (for example, do not compare the numbers of debt mass and GRP to hide which regions are drowned in debt and where lending is a more or less normal element of the economy). Russian statistics are false, but it has some tips.

According to official data, at the beginning of last year, every economically active Russian was guilty of 54% of his annual salary. At the beginning of 2024, the reconciliation increased to 57. 1%. In the Russian Federation itself, it will probably be explained by the fact that people began to live better, more confidence in the future, so they began to take more loans. Such explanations were already. Last year, the number of borrowing Russians serving 3 or more loans increased to 28. 6%.

The number of people with 5 or more loans, compared to the end of 2021, has almost doubled - from 4. 7% to 8. 6%. This was explained by the more active distribution of credit cards, only by mentioning that the share of borrowers with a "high debt load" increases. That is, people in the bondage. The fresh rating showed that every economically active resident of Tuva is now to blame the banks with 149. 4% of his annual salary. At the end of 2021, an economically active Tuvinets was averaged 87. 4%.

In Kalmykia, which has traditionally been the leader in debt - now 133. 9%. And at the end of 2021 it was 100. 1%. In Bashkortostan, the level of consolidation increased from 80. 1% at the end of 2021 to 84. 8% at the beginning of 2024 in the Republic of Altai (also one of the leaders in relative losses) from 69. 3% to 79%. Etc. In a number of subjects of the Federation, the numbers of debt (especially with the correction for data on economic situation) do not look irrelevant. A number of questions arise.

As we know from the captives of the Rossoard and from open statements from Russian media, one of the most important motivations for Russian mercenaries to go to war is to give loans. However, Russian figures show that someone is deceiving someone somewhere. For example, a large separation is leading the relative number of confirmed losses: for every 10,000 able -bodied men, the region has lost at least 50 people killed (in reality - more).

That is, the war for the Tuvintsi - more corpses and more debts. In the Altai Republic - the same, as clear as possible. Such addiction is not isolated cases, this is a trend. It seems that many residents of the disadvantaged Russian hinterland have gained more loans with the calculation of high wages of mercenaries.

They will theoretically be able to repay these loans: the termination of the war without the mechanism of forgiveness of debts and the return of mercenaries home is a sharp growth of bondage debtors, social fire, rampant crime. In general, the war deepened the inequality between the regions of the Russian Federation so much that it is increasingly difficult to speak about "the situation in Russia".

The Russian Federation sells oil, the Federal Center redistributes profit to regions with developed MIC. Narious regions are sliding into a pit without MIC. While Moscow has the opportunity to throw some money, the situation can be managed. But money gets less. And the strikes on the refinery contribute to this. In this case, the regions with the MIC suck the workforce, reducing the available mobressurs.

The structure of confirmed losses illuminates that some of the regions can no longer supply either mercenaries or mobilized. On "Mediazone" there was material with an officer-carrier of corpses, where he referred to the words of a number of troops of Buryatia: men were physically over, there is no mobress. Our figures show that Buryatia, which has long been in 5 leaders in the number of confirmed losses in absolute numbers, slid into 8th place.

This indirectly shows that the occupiers from Buryatia in the troops becomes numerically less. The number of regions of the Russian Federation capable of pulling war is inevitably decreasing. Someone is no longer touched for social reasons, fearing excitement (Caucasus). Somewhere close to exhaustion. A new wave of mass mobilization, in the case of its conduct, can sharply exacerbate the situation in the subjects of the federation, which are still much softer.

That is, technically to collect another 500 thousand people. Russia can, with a stock. Especially - if you actively attract Moscow, Peter, Moscow and Leningrad regions. But practically and politically, it is not so easy, much more complicated than in 2022. I think that it is with the accumulation of imbalances that hysterical pressure on Ukraine about "negotiations" and nuclear ultimatums is associated.