The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation prepare for a new massive blow to Ukraine: how many rockets are produced - analysis

"To begin with, it is worthwhile to understand how many in the current conditions it can produce rockets of certain types. It has been noted that the Russian defense industry is currently steadily producing rockets for potential attacks in Ukraine: the message states that as of the end of May 2025, Russia has probably accumulated significant reserves of rocket weapons that can be used for regular massive blows in Ukraine.

It is estimated that the army of the Russian Federation is: "These volumes allow the enemy to organize a massive combined blow in the near future. And for this purpose it is sufficient for both a month of ammunition and overall potential, which allows to carry out 5-6 massive combined blows," Kovalenko writes. At the same time, according to him, there is a significant difference in the volumes of accumulated missiles type 3m14 "caliber" compared to X-101 and other samples.

The main reason for the significantly lower accumulation of rockets 3m14 "caliber" is the shortage of good carriers in the Black Sea. Due to the active use from the beginning of the full-scale war, the Russian Black Sea Fleet, which has actually turned into flotilla, is significantly worn-both the buildings of ships and the starting installations of the ZS-14.

Most carriers need either regulatory service, but it is overdue, or repair of the starting installations of the ZS-14, but it cannot be carried out in the current conditions. As a result, each new "caliber" start is associated with risks, and the marine platform cannot fully replace the air in efficiency and frequency of use.

"In other words, there is now a problem with the implementation of systemic massive, combined blows as in 2022 and 2023, there is not so much limited production that does not satisfy the terrorist intentions of the enemy, but" troubles "that arise with the carriers," - the observer reports. In Russia, a stable, though far from as large -scale, as the leadership seeks, production of rocket means.

The period of time from the last massive combined rocket stroke not only allowed to prepare a new wave of attacks in Ukraine, but also to accumulate ammunition without significantly influence on the overall rocket potential of the Russian occupation troops. At the same time, a key problem for the Russian army is not a lack of missiles or their deficiency compared to 2022-2023, but a significant wear of rocket carriers.

This significantly complicates strokes, increasing the risks of refusals and unpredictable situations during operations. "However, this does not mean that the criminal Putin regime will give up the tactics of civilian terror. And given the long break from the date of the task of the previous blow, we can say that the next one will be carried out in the near future - before the beginning of June," Kovalenko predicts.

Recall that Russia refines the latest Su-57M fighter, which allegedly received a number of key updates: a new engine, improved stealth technology, integration of artificial intelligence and a modernized radar system. It was also reported that according to military and analysts, Donbas is the main purpose of this year's spring and summer campaign of Russia.