"Need to prepare the whole population for war": The demographic shared a disappointing forecast for Ukraine

On February 5, the Deputy Director of Scientific Work of the Institute of Demography and the Problems of Life Quality of NASU Alexander Gladun shared details in an interview with TSN. As the expert explained that the more people leave, the less of them will return. In addition to the longer the war, the less refugees return home. Demographers estimate that Ukraine has already left about 5 million. "We assume if 50%returns, it will be very good for Ukraine. It is about 2. 5-3 million of our citizens.

They may be more returned, and perhaps, on the contrary, less. Now no one can name this figure", " Said Gladun. The full -scale war in Ukraine per 100 women accounted for 86 men. As a result, this proportion varies. According to the optimistic forecast, if the war is over this year, the ratio will be approximately the same - 51% of women and 49% of men. At the same time, demographers predict an increase in fertility after the war, as couples will dare to children whose birth was postponed.

However, the longer the war will last, the less effect it will have. "In order for the population to not be reduced by the natural factor, it is necessary for 100 women to give birth to approximately 220 children. (…) In the optimistic scenario, we predict that in 2030 there will be 140 children per 100 women in Ukraine, the average variant is 120. , and on the pessimistic - 105, " - said Gladun.

The most important factor is safety on which the war will end and whether Russia will further threaten. "It is the best option for us when Russia is scattered into small states, but it is not yet observed. Or it is an introduction to NATO, where we are still not very much wanted to see. . It is impossible, the economy will simply not withstand this, "the expert said. If there is no threat to the Russian Federation, the population will not be of fundamental importance.

As a result, Ukrainians die on the front, protecting other citizens. In addition, chronic diseases are exacerbated due to constant stress in civilians. All this increases the mortality rate. The demographer said that Ukrainians traditionally neglect healthy eating, drink alcohol and smoke. Finland took 25 years to convince their citizens to eat less fatty foods and to increase life expectancy for more than 10 years.

According to Gladun, a protracted war can lead to a significant increase in divorce among Ukrainians. Many women went abroad unmarried, and the demograph suggests that they will find a couple there. However, women who will marry foreigners are unlikely to return to Ukraine. "I believe that even if women return with foreigners to Ukraine, the percentage of such returns will be insignificant and it will not significantly affect the demographic situation," the expert added.