Putin's way - from success to fall: As dictator was lucky again and as he didn't take the chance again

The will of fate, not deserving of it, he received the keys to a country with tremendous resource potential, significant (and relatively young in 1999) by the population and a wide field of "soft power" around. In addition, he was inherited by an economy with mostly market reforms. In this, Russia was ahead of Ukraine and other neighbors in two orders of order by the level of state.

The conditions were extremely favorable: a stable resource trend, open access to European markets, to the growing China market and exclusive - to the neighbors' markets. Against the background of a change in the US foreign policy vector after September 11, 2001, Russia was a unique position - the US partner, which at the same time had strong positions in the Middle East, Central Asia and Central Europe.

It remains only to build Canada+: the country may be slightly less democratic, but with an additional bonus in the form of its own sphere of cultural and economic influence. However, such a path required a personal "victim"-rejection of the role of the king-clyptocrat. At least, he demanded respect for neighbors, the ability to negotiate, not to break everyone through the knee; It involved the need to press your hands and honestly negotiate even with "younger" partners.

But throughout Putin's path, they brought their own complexes and desire to stand in a row not with Conrad Adenauer or Pak Jong -XI, but with tyrants like Peter I or Stalin - only with the Palace in Sochi. Actually, we saw all this disrespect, superiority and desire to get everything right away in his interaction with his own his own President of the United States.

When Putin was incredible again and he received a chance for a political victory without winning on the battlefield, it seemed to him that he had grabbed God for his beard. But if Putin's back was usually a resource advantage of his country, and against him - the vulnerability of democratic mechanisms to direct pressure, now the situation has changed.

Over the three and a half years of a talentless war against Ukraine and the 25 years of the most corrupted regime in the history of his position have weakened significantly. And opposite was a person with no less blocked him. Will he be lucky again? Will it be possible to "slip" this time? After all, his regime and economy are breathing incense, and can be enough for a relatively small push. In the end, the trajectory of its fall is obvious. Question only in time.