Russia's future is eternal war: As Putin created a system that cannot live in peace

The stop of the military-industrial complex will give rise to the swamps a total economic crisis; On the other hand, further development of the defense is possible only through the suction of resources in medicine, education and social sphere. First about the trap. The Russian dictator is fond of war and plans to fight for the end of life, which is traced on the budget-2025.

Defense and national security costs will officially be 40% of all federal expenditures - this is the highest rate since the collapse of the USSR. For the first time since the end of communism, military expenditures have exceeded social and went into a separation. The war industry became the meaning of the Russian economy.

The costs of Russia's defense are unlikely to decrease in the coming years, but not only in aggression against Ukraine: the war has become part of the country's economy, military expenditures and social (salaries of military and grave) have become the main engine of growth of economy and population growth. The MIC was the only market that can develop. Financing of the military complex is sought in education, health care, social policy.

Already, "at the request of workers", they are delayed belts for the population to eat less, drunk and so on. For example, according to the established practice of Soviet propaganda, increasing taxes on sugar -containing products, officials talk about the intention of "maintaining the health of citizens". The Russian leadership puts military power higher than long -term economic stability. However, the resources that Putin can collect is not limitless.

By pouring more and more money on defense, the Kremlin increases the economic imbalance. There are two main restrictions on Putin's economic strategy - the reduction of labor and the burden of international sanctions. The Russian labor market is already experiencing difficulties. Lack of workers will undermine the ability to increase production, despite efforts to expand capacity. In addition, there is also an "energy risk": as soon as world oil prices will lower below $ 50.

For barrel, Putin's economic magic will disappear. This is the trap of the Eternal War: it is increasingly difficult for the state to finance fighting in Ukraine without worsening standard of living. On the other hand, if there is a reduction in military expenditures, it will inevitably lead to significant structural shock, which will take considerable time. In any case, ordinary Russians will pay for everything.

The conclusion is one: the event should focus on a long -term strategy that will further limit Putin's military car and increase Ukraine's economic stability. Due to the strengthening of the sanctions of the bunker, it will be even more limited. Hidden inflation in Russia shows that Western financial sanctions are much more effective than many observers believe. Mordor cannot borrow money abroad and is forced to live only at the expense of taxes and reserves. While the reserves also dry up.

In 2021, the National Production Fund was at the height, with $ 183 billion in its accounts. While in March 2024, the Fund's reserves decreased to $ 55 billion, most of these funds were already invested and not liquid.

The US and the EU make a powerful mistake, watching the bunker for the eternal war: weighing the forces and analyzing their values, our Western partners conclude that they are "eternal war" not to the strength, and therefore scroll through the thoughts of "eternal ceasefire" with a dictator. Whereas developed countries of the world must play on their own - technological field - on the field of sanctions. And play seriously, then harmful thoughts will not visit the headquarters.