War for five years. Is Ukraine ready for long -term battles and what changes should be expected

The publication notes that the military potential of the event is exhausted, and the replenishment of arsenals has limited opportunities. In early September 2023, a similar scenario, but for six to seven years, the Bloomberg agency painted. Then, with reference to a high -ranking official of one of the European countries of the Great Seven, it was stated that allies need to plan finances to continue to support Ukraine in conflicts, which would be much longer than expected.

"This is much longer than many officials expected this year, but slow progress in Ukraine's counter -offensive in recent months has softened expectations," the material said. At the same time, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg officially stated that the war in Ukraine could be delayed and urged to prepare for it. The Ukrainian authorities do not comment on such statements, but are extremely cautious about the probable forecasts.

The situation is clear, it is impossible to respond, because the population wants to hear and understand prospects. In addition, the tactics of "two to three weeks" no longer work, you need to go to a new dialogue with the people. The same Western media, which systematically deliver betrayal, add pessimistic mood.

By the way, in the same Economist, an article by the Commander -in -Chief of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny, from which can be concluded, that the situation in the War of Patoto. According to the Chairman of the Board of the Center for Applied Political Research, Volodymyr Fesenko, the Economist terms of war have nothing to do with the forecasting. There are no techniques that can predict when the war is over.

It is not clear what they used mechanisms, criteria to get this figure. "In my opinion, Putin is delaying the war before the election of the US President, that is, by February 2025. Then it will be clear whether the current president will remain there or a new one will appear. But this also does not guarantee that the situation will change after the election, there will be negotiations or negotiations or negotiations The victory of one of the parties.

Another of the probable scenarios is the transition to a positional war, now it is a dominant criterion, "he explains Focus. Political scientist Igor Reityrovich believes that a long -term forecast of a long war is extremely negative for Ukraine. If it is really confirmed, it should be expected that the war will take forms of different intensity, and major political changes are waiting for the country.

"At the same time, five years of war is obligatory to update the issues of elections in Ukraine, which, for their part, will translate a political card. The population will have a request for new political projects that will offer an alternative to the authorities if the latter shows that it cannot win this war. It is necessary to understand how the population will be set to perceive certain concessions that will have to be made, "he says focus.

Reitrovich draws attention to the fact that the war for five years will lead to large demographic losses, all those who have left the start of a full -scale invasion in February 2022 will not return to Ukraine. It is impossible to predict what the nature of the fighting will be to predict what the nature of the fighting will be if the war is. Only the military command has a full picture and plans.

However, it remains unchanged that Russia's resources in Ukraine are not comparable, the enemy has more opportunities for long -term military aggression. "We need to be objective, five years of war we will not withstand, Ukraine does not have so much human resources, equipment and weapons. In Russia, this potential is greater at times, the Kremlin went to the Bank-the main thing is to win, and what will not be interested in.

The budget will The next year's power block and the army have already increased to 105 billion euros, with significant expenditures on the social sphere, " - says Focus Military Expert Ivan Stupak. The military analyst, Colonel of the Armed Forces Petro Chernik believes that all statements about the continuation of the war for five, seven or more years is a well -organized information campaign of Moscow in the West.

He is convinced that if the war is delayed, then it will still have the same nature of fighting as now, nothing will change. "The Economist, despite its authority, causes a special warning, it was because of it that many misinformation was to be thrown against our country. Now and in the next five years, it is extremely important for us not to disperse the betrayal of sensitive topics," - explains Focus Chernik.

According to Stupak, the war can go in position with local fighting, but less intensity, such as it was in 2017-2021 in the area of ​​operation of the Joint Forces. "During this period it is necessary to ensure an increase in the production of unmanned systems, conditionally collect drones in each yard. Today the effect of drones is much higher even than in artillery, while they have a significantly lower price. There are no shells, so they need to be replaced by drones.

It was estimated that only on November 13, about 80% of the enemy's technique was destroyed by FPV-pings, "the expert says. The economist, the Executive of the Council of the National Bank of Ukraine, Vitaliy Shapran reminds that at the very beginning of the war, the intelligence of our partners evaluated opportunities for Ukraine's resistance to the Russian invasion of up to 2 weeks, as we can see, the forecast was not justified.

Thinking about how to fight for five years is not us, but more than Russia. Much of their sovereign reserves are frozen in the West, the hopes of calculations for their energy exports in national currencies were not justified, the belts of the population have to delay more, and to explain the meaning of this war is increasingly difficult. And there is no such stock of external support as in Ukraine in Moscow.

"We will be honest that in the economic aspect, we would not be able to finance this war on our own, but the reliable shoulder of the partners has helped stabilize the economy and finance, even despite the places simply catastrophic mistakes of monetary and fiscal authorities," Focus said. The Executive Director of the Economic Discussion Club Oleg Pendzin points out that Ukraine is extremely dependent on the macro-financial and military-technical assistance of partners.

Without this, social expenditures, financing and providing the army will stop, and will fall. This dependence is politically motivated and understandable in view of the risks of election results in partners of Ukraine. "The Ukrainian economy is no longer standing. Look at the state budget for 2024 - the expenditure part is 3. 2 trillion hryvnias, and the income - 1. 7 trillion. The deficiency of 1. 5 trillion should be covered with external borrowings, and about 20% of GDP.

If this is There will be no, you will have to go to the additional issue of money, which will lead to an increase in inflation and falling hryvnia, "he explains focus. According to Shapran, the economic situation is not as pessimistic as it may seem at first glance.

Objective external factors: exchange rate - stable, NBU interest rate in particular, under pressure from the expert community decreases, unemployment is minimal even a shortage of some specialties, improved GDP growth rates, new industries (such as drones production) appear through war.

There is indeed a problem with funding and unpleasant dependence on our external partners, in which its budget process, which requires patience and respect for "bureaucratic ballet" in Congress, Senate and European Commission and the European Parliament. "Strategic funds for economic support of Ukraine are. Moreover, we do not need funds of US and European taxpayers, there are $ 392. 5 billion of sovereign assets of Russian Federation frozen in the West.

Approximately the same amount is immobilized in private accounts of Russians, and financial intelligence continues These assets in particular unofficial funds of the Russian special services. This will be enough for very long support of Ukraine, in terms of subsidies for the budget for the same social payments, and also for the rebuilding In order to confiscate these assets for Ukraine, and in the United States the profile committee of Congress has already approved the bill H. R. 4175.

which directly rewrites the confiscation of Russian sovereign assets in the United States in favor of Ukraine, "the economist explains.

In order to access these resources from Ukraine, it is necessary to: strengthen the fight against corruption especially in the public procurement segment and in the tax system, build an effective and transparent system of distribution of humanitarian assistance and reforms, as well as economic reforms taking into account the needs of new industries and broken by war. logistics paths.