From patriotism to fatigue: how Ukrainians transformed over 3 years of war and what happens to society

With the beginning of a full -scale invasion of Russia in 2022, Ukraine is experiencing unprecedented social transformations. These changes cover all spheres of public life - from demographic tendencies to geopolitical orientations, from changes in attitude to state institutions to rethinking identity. Studies of the Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), conducted over the last three years, allow not only to record these changes, but also to outline their long -term consequences.

Sociologist Vladimir Paniotto, President of KIIS, Professor NaUKMA told about these studies of focus. According to the sociologist, there are two periods of social changes-from the beginning of the invasion to October 2023 (ie 2022 and 2023) and from November-December 2023 to the present (especially 2024). "The main thing is that in the first period there was a" union around the flag ", the mobilization of people to fight the enemy, or, as Eugene Golovakha called," Shock Euphoria.

Which enemy planned to take in 3 days, aroused surprise and respect all over the world, succeeded in the liberation of the captured territories and waited for the future The counter -offensive, which was discussed in the media and social networks. Paniotto says. The second period began after it became clear that the counter -offensive at least did not meet the expectations, and to be honest, it was unsuccessful that the war would end very shortly and it is about years and not months.

We moved from a rapid war to a position war, to a war for exhaustion, and there are many resources in Russia. Society has to realize that the war is for a long time, and the prospects for returning all the passionate territories now are doubtful. Combining or railing around the flag ("Rally Around The Flag") is a cohesion of the population around the leader and leadership of the country in very difficult situations, especially during the war (concepts used by American political scientists).

"The situation with the attitude towards the state and social institutions looks quite paradoxical. After the war, the standard of living in Ukraine decreased significantly, the poverty levels increased, the unemployment rate increased significantly, and the assessment of the situation has improved. Two months before the war in November 2021, only 5% considered it that the central authorities cope with their responsibilities, in December 2022, 41%.

Quite pessimistic in their estimates - 35%believed that the situation would most likely worsen and only 13%, which will improve. , - the sociologist continues. The Armed Forces used the greatest confidence in Ukraine, and for the first year of the war the level of trust increased 72% to 96%.

According to Paniotto, in December 2021, 27%were entrusted to the President (and the balance was negative -23%, that is, there were more those who did not trust than trusted), but in the year (by December 2022) the figure increased to 84%, And the balance was +80%. After the start of the war, the confidence in volunteers increased, and the perception of the government and parliament (Verkhovna Rada) improved significantly.

"In general, it can be said that the opportunity to lose statehood forced Ukrainians to overestimate their pre -war views. Ukrainians began to appreciate their state much more. Comparison of democratic Ukraine with totalitarian Russia forced more to appreciate their own sovereignty, freedom and rights. enemy. its state. Paniotto says.

Ukraine has made the final and irreversible geopolitical choice - the vast majority of Ukrainians support the entrance to the EU and NATO in the country and in all regions of Ukraine. The attitude of Ukrainians to the Russian Federation, which was significantly deteriorated in 2014 after the occupation of Crimea, has deteriorated even more: the percentage of Russia's supporters decreased to 2%.

The attitude towards Russia-Russian Russian Russian Russian from 75% (in 2021) to 3% of positive attitude has deteriorated sharply. Similar changes have taken place in Belarus, which most Ukrainians consider a war participant. The war helped to unite the nation, increase social cohesion, Ukrainian identity, use the Ukrainian language, increase patriotism and pride in the country.

The level of mutual assistance, the level of trust in volunteers and the prevalence of volunteer activity have increased. Regional and linguistic-ethnic differentiation has decreased significantly. "The process of formation of Ukrainian national identity has accelerated, it demonstrates dynamic growth and deep penetration into various aspects of public life, from strengthening the self -identification of citizens as Ukrainians to rethinking historical heritage and cultural influences.

Yes, the percentage % in 1992-2004 to 80% after the start of the war in 2022-2023. The popularity of national holidays, the support of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine (PCU) has increased, the attitude to the OUN-UPA has improved, "-continues the sociologist. From negative trends - new potential sources of social tension have emerged, in particular a new basis for social differentiation - the status and behavior of a person during the war.

Potential social conflicts are possible between different groups of Ukrainians, including refugees abroad, internally displaced persons, the main population who did not change their place of residence and those who resided in the occupied territory. The attitude towards Russian -speaking Ukrainians and Ukrainians, who are ethnic Russians, has deteriorated.

When the "shock euphoria" subsided when it became clear that the war was delayed - the Ukrainians were no longer crowded by the Bul of the Tax Code at their own request, now the word "snoop" was increasingly heard and after - "Busification". News began to appear on how Ukrainian men try to cross the borders of the country in any way, even risking their own lives - whether through the Tisza River, or on a snow -covered mountain in Romania.

"Although after an unsuccessful counter -offensive and the realization that the war for a long time has decreased optimism. It is also important that there was a significant revival reduced the unity of our society and made it more vulnerable to hostile IPSO. When the elections cannot be changed. Who had the desire to voluntarily join the army already joined but most men of conscript age (and many women) are ready to join To the Armed Forces, if they are called, "says Vladimir Paniotto.

Moreover, according to the international study of Gelap at the end of 2023, the readiness of Ukrainians to defend their country (62%) twice as high as in Russia (32%) and major European countries - Spain (29%), Germany (23%), Austria (20%) %), Italy (14%). Sociological research data do not confirm the significant deterioration of the situation. First, some indicators have practically unchanged and are unlikely to change in the future.

These are primarily geopolitical orientations, attitudes towards Russia and Russians, orientation to Europe, NATO's attitude. In addition, regional, ethnic and language differentiation have disappeared in Ukraine in Ukraine. Secondly, changes in other indicators are not sharp, but gradual, slow. "True," the rallying around the flag "is largely over, the attitude towards the government, the parliament, the judicial system returned to the pre -war level.

Trust in the President has also decreased, but it remains at a very high level for Ukrainian presidents. In our survey, 52% trust in December in December Zelensky, 39% do not trust, balance +13%, and before the war was balance -15%, " -explains the sociologist.

If during the first two years a full-scale invasion of ready to endure the war as much as needed was 72% (and ready less than six months, 18-20% in different measurements), then in the last year this percentage decreased to 57% (and less ready than six months, 21%, this is December 2024). Despite the severe war and constant shelling, the majority of the population is ready to endure the war as much as it is needed.

The level of happiness in the last year (from December 2023 to December 2024) decreased from 69% to 58%, but not due to the increase in the number of unhappy, but at the expense of those who are difficult to decide - were 17% of those who considered themselves unhappy, became 15 % (this reduction is not significant, that is, the unhappy ones remained as much as it was).

That is, the number of happy in the country, which has been in the difficult conditions of war for three years, is almost 4 times higher than the number of unhappy ones. "In general, the future situation depends on the situation in the fight against the enemy and the prospects of its improvement. If the constant, although the small successes of the enemy will continue, then the indicators will get worse. region). The KIIS studies record dramatic changes in Ukrainian society during the war.