Crocus terrorist attack: ISW explained why Lukashenko said that terrorists were traveling to Belarus

According to American analysts, Lukashenko has very few obvious motives to lie, because the statement that the suspects were going to Belarus can raise many questions to Minsk. ISW believes that the Belarusian politician decided to raise this topic to protect himself from the possible pressure of the Kremlin in the future.

Oleksandr Lukashenko stated that terrorists who staged shooting and arson in City Hall City were moving towards Belarus, probably, to prevent the discussion about the hypothetical ties of criminals with Minsk. This is stated in the report of the Institute of War Study (ISW) of March 26.

Analysts indicated that Lukashenko's statement that terrorists "could not penetrate into Belarus" thanks to the actions of Belarusian special services, contradicted the statement of President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin about the alleged movement of suspects to the border with Ukraine.

According to ISW, the probable place of detention of terrorists is about 95 kilometers from the Ukrainian border at the nearest point or 130 kilometers from the intersection of the highway E101 with Ukraine. This point is also located about 124 kilometers from the border with Belarus and about 25 kilometers from the A-240 motorway leading to Gomel.

The report states that the statement of Lukashenko about the alleged prevention of terrorists' penetration into Belarus assumes a script for which the attackers initially moved the A-240 route, but saw checkpoints or other restraining factors and changed their course to east forest roads to the highway E101.

Analysts also emphasized that Lukashenko had very few obvious motives to lie, because the statement that the attackers were going to Belarus can raise questions about why, in their opinion, they would be safer there, and who, in their opinion, may be them There to take. "Lukashenko may have wanted to prevent the discussion about the hypothetical ties of attackers with Belarus, saying that Belarusian forces played an important role in their arrests.

Although the statement of Lukashenko undermines the established Kremlin position, it reduces its vulnerability before the Kremlin's attempts to use closed information about initial plans The escape of the attackers to put pressure on it in the future, " - summed up in ISW. On March 26, Oleksandr Lukashenko stated that Belarus had blocked the border with Russia, not to miss the terrorists who committed the terrorist attack in the City Hall City Hall concert hall in Podmoskov.

According to the politician, the forces of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the KGB, and the military from some parts were involved in the border. "Their curators, we have suspicions of some, I am Putin I call, I will say my suspicions - they realized that it is impossible to go to Belarus. Because in the first minutes, as in Russia, part of the region switched to increased safety regime, and and We have, "he said.

Recall that on March 23, US officials confirmed the statements of the media that the responsibility for the terrorist act in the concert hall of the Crocus City Hall (City Hall) in the Moscow region of the Russian Federation is carried by the Islamic State (IDIL).