The arrival of "black ostrich": why the US administration does not want to notice the entry into the DPRK War

Information policy expert Dmitry Zolotukhin offers the term "black ostrich" - when an unexpected but predictable event simply do not want to notice. This is how the current US administration is behaving on the DPRK's participation in the war in Ukraine. The theory of black ostrich (without any racial implication) Theory of "black ostrich" is one of the variations of the theory of "Black Swan".

However, if in the case of the phenomenon of "Black Swan" it is about events that cannot be predicted, and therefore it is difficult for managers to apply managerial procedures to manage the risk of "black swans", then in the case of "black ostrich" it is about events whose predictions are predicted is available. But managers refuse to believe that events that can be calculated and prepared for them can actually occur.

The allegory comes from the myth that the ostriches allegedly hide their heads in the sand. Although in reality they only bent their heads to the ground when they need to switch. Your obedient servant felt the phenomenon of "black ostrich" when he did not want to believe in the possibility of a full -scale attack against Ukraine, as it would mean a slow but inevitable decline of the empire, regardless of Ukraine's future. But it happened.

The most common examples of the phenomenon of "Black ostrich" are: Lloyd Austin's statement about refusing to perceive the fact that North Korea is established in the war on the side of the Russian Federation - is also an example of the phenomenon of "black ostrich". Since, if you recognize the fact of Korean participation in the war against the event, you will have to do something with it.