Billions contracts at stake: how will the Polish army change after parliamentary elections

The results of the parliamentary elections show that the first place is the party "Law and Justice", which was in power. They follow the Civic Coalition and the Third Way with the Left. Three opposition parties, most likely to form a coalition and government. Therefore, the question is what will happen with the financing of the army. The Ministry of Finance showed that not only 3% of GDP, but also significant loans for the needs of the Fund, the Budget provided the budget.

Now the Fund has $ 10 billion, in 2023-2024 it is planned to increase debt by another 30-40 billion, and in 2025-2027 another 70-80 billion zlotys. Bonds are issued and budget is released. The publication states that during the last MSPO weapons only, more than 100 billion zlotys were signed, and then huge contracts with South Korea, the USA and the Polish defense were signed. The cost of contracts is transferred for 100 billion zlotys.

It is because many contracts have not yet been completed that the Army Support Fund and such a large debt are planned. Much of the acquisitions in the army are loans. The authors believe that the variation of the modernization program can be considered very unlikely. The full -scale war in Ukraine and other geopolitical threats will not save on the army. In addition, part of the contracts have already been signed and independent of the election.

The question is whether they will give new loans to the support fund. If "right and justice" comes to power after the elections, it probably wants to continue its current course. The question is what the reaction of the financial markets will be, especially if the leadership party is now forced to create a minority government. If the government is formed by the opposition, then there is almost no fear of modernizing the army.

Former Ministry of Defense Head Tomasz Semonyak, headed by opposition, says that there will be no reduction in defense costs. However, the Polish Army Support Fund may not have such loans. You will need to conduct an audit and possibly limit the amount of planned contracts. The number of foreign contracts may decrease. A key challenge for Poland is a war in Ukraine. Despite the defeat of the Russian Federation, they do not retreat from plans and constantly expand the financing of the army.