Double Threat: The US is preparing for nuclear restraint of the Russian Federation and China - The Economist

According to journalists, the Russian Federation can increase its arsenal by 57%, adding a little less than 1000 units of nuclear weapons. Today it is restrained by S-III, but the contract days are already police. By the end of the decade, Beijing will have 1000 warheads. More and more influential American analysts agree that nuclear restraint may be unreliable as the competition increases.

Returning to Donald Trump's White House can destroy US alliances and force allies in Asia and Europe to look at their own nuclear capabilities. About it writes the British edition of The Economist. Whoever wins the November elections in the US will get a nuclear complex in the midst of a 30-year reconstruction worth $ 1. 5 trillion.

There are many different projects, such as the development of a new warhead and a winged rocket, the creation of new plutonium capacities, the construction of new submarines, bombers and intercontinental ballistic missiles.

Against the background of war in Ukraine, nuclear rhetoric of Russian President Vladimir Putin, as well as the growth of the nuclear arsenal of China (with less than 300 warheads of 2019 up to 500 today and, according to Pentagon, by 1000 to the end of the decade), America is increasingly worried about What will have to resist two large nuclear states at the same time.

"What is the strategic value for the United States in the opportunity to inflict on a container against the second nuclear state after the first has struck and withstood a major nuclear stroke?" - This issue is raised by the authors of the recent article of the National Laboratory of the US Department of Energy in Livermore, California, which deals with nuclear modernization.

"If America had to wage a nuclear war, for example, with China, would Russia cross the nuclear threshold to strike a decisive blow, defeat a hated enemy and achieve a dominant position?" - Also reading. Skeptics consider the problem exaggerated. The US nuclear arsenal is still ten times larger than Chinese. The war in Ukraine is also not considered a thorough reason to increase nuclear weapons.

"The strategic nuclear balance seems to have not played a significant role in this crisis," says Francis Gavin, a historian of nuclear energy at Jones Hopkins University. He drew attention to how little discussed the condition, readiness and number of nuclear weapons of the two largest nuclear states, which may indicate that America would be able to cope, even if the Russian Federation and China exceeds it quantitatively. But there is another thought.

In October last year, the Commission of Congress, which included people from Obama and Trump administrations, warned that "the size and composition of nuclear forces should take into account the possibility of joint aggression from the Russian Federation and China", and that the United States should have opportunities for "simultaneous restraint both countries. " In general, a larger and more diverse nuclear arsenal is needed.

In the US, there is no opportunity to produce a huge number of new warheads. But there are about 1900 nuclear weapons in the reserve. A detailed arsenal can double if weapons are installed in existing missiles and other systems. The Russian Federation can increase its arsenal by 57%, adding a little less than 1000. Today it is restrained by S-III. But last year, Russia abandoned the inspections stipulated by the contract - a sign that its days are coming to an end.

Another option that some Trump advisers prefer are to restore nuclear testing. The USA, the Russian Federation and China have not conducted such tests since the 1990s, relying on computer modeling. During his presidency, Trump accused China and Russia of secret tests of "low power" and considered the possibility of changing politics. In recent years, the construction of tunnels, new facilities and increased traffic at test landfills in the US, Russia and China have emerged.

This probably indicates that each of the countries tries to be safe in case of change in other countries. But nothing is resolved. Trump can try to establish control of weapons and agree with Russia and China to assert himself as a successful parliamentary, as Jeffrey Lewis from the Institute for International Studies Middlebury in Montereus considers.

In exchange for restrictions on the development of missile defense, the US may ask the Russian Federation to include its significant arsenal of tactical nuclear weapons in any future arms control agreements and propose China to sign an agreement. But in January, Trump publicly supported the missile defense system, referring to the success of the Iron Dome Israeli System. Therefore, these issues will cause internal tension in the future administration.