Gas transit, Sudzha, Nord Stream. What is the Russian Federation trying to persuade the event?

Economist Andrian Prokip answers the question: why Russia is trying to convince Europe now that Ukraine has undermined the Nord Streams. His answer is simple - to restore the supply of other gas pipelines, bypassing Ukraine, and again try to reduce the support of Ukraine. New North Stream-2 speculation: why and why now the American newspaper published a version of the Nord Streams in 2022.

The operation was planned and implemented by the Ukrainians: according to the publication, Zelensky sanctioned the operation and then ordered to cancel, but did not retreat and implemented - the efforts of four divers, a tourist sailboat and a woman who distracted attention. Even without resorting to the detail, it already sounds comical, understanding the scale of destruction, which has undergone three strong pipes: a rupture of a few meters long.

It is not necessary to take this version seriously only because the information was spread by the US edition: in November 2023, another edition in the United States has already published a very similar version. At the same time, at the beginning of 2023, one American journalist reproduced the version that the US and Norway were undermining. And there were versions about Poland.

So why again and why right now? I am convinced that this slip is not accidental - the Russians are trying to convince the West, especially Germany, that it was Ukraine who had dilated in gas pipelines, believing that it is right now. What is the logic of the occupiers? Very simple. The first step. Considering the unexpectedness and to some extent even the boldness of the Kursk operation, the basis is convinced that Ukrainian defense forces can perform complex and unexpected operations.

So the audience is supplied to the fact that the conditionally four divers could undermine gas pipelines. The second step of hostile logic: the West, and above all Germany, believes that we did. As a result, the Russians will break down the support of Ukraine. In the end, Russian media are already pumping this story. The third step is to give up European countries to abandon the Ukrainian transit route and return to the use of bypass gas pipelines.

In addition, they will also use the fact that the only gas -measuring station through which the transit is going - Sudzha is now controlled by the defense forces and "is located at the epicenter of hostilities.

" I will remind that today, in addition to the Ukrainian route, Germany (and other European cranes) and Russia combine two more gas pipelines: "Yamal-Europe" (runs through the Belarusian territory, Poland and connects with the German gas transportation system) and survived the "northern thread -2 ". It is not quite clear in what state the thread of "North Stream-2" has now survived. But the gas pipeline was not certified, which makes it impossible to use it from a legal point of view.

However, in fact, Russians can direct their efforts to return to the use of this gas pipeline. Yamal-Europe is under Russian sanctions, so here you also need to "keep track of hands" and Kremlin statements. It may seem strange to someone, but in September 2022 it was the Russians that was profitable to undermine gas pipelines. By the way, after the accident, several countries reported that a few days before the explosions in this area were Russian warships.

Why is it profitable? First, they sought legal grounds to reduce gas supplies to Europe, which was an element of energy blackmail. First used far -fetched reasons: the requirements to pay in rubles, not the euro, then - the repair of "Nord Stream", "Spilling" on the compressor, the inability to obtain a turbine seemed to be due to sanctions and many others. The purpose of blackmail was to provoke an energy crisis in Europe and to stop Ukraine's support.

The gap in their plan was that the contrary to the reasons seemed obvious, so as a result, the horizon was the use of penalties and arbitration, which later began to lose Gazprom. That is, the blast of the gas pipeline could be presented as a real force majeure. Only one of the four pipes survived, which gave the Russians a field for maneuvering in restoring supplies to the Baltic Sea.