Putin is ready for negotiations. Why does it and what Russia will do

Rational in the sense that they look theoretical (!) Achiers: but it can already be stated that the forms and methods of achieving these Hegemon desires have proven to be guaranteed to lead to results opposite to the planned ones. To achieve the first goal, the Kremlin has chosen a blackmail in the style "Keep me seven, because I am a bolt for all my teeth. " Military, energy, food and nuclear.

Calculation that the unity of the political event will fall apart will be separated negotiations on the supply of cheap oil and gas, and in the end of the Russian Federation will receive the desired, and the inevitable sanctions will be lifted. At least the most sensitive - in the field of high technology. It would be real if the Russian Federation managed to capture Ukraine in the same two weeks.

Then - so: the Kremlin's military force would not be questioned by anyone, and the West (Old Europe, first of all) could shudder. But the Russian Blitzkrig was a fancy fiasco, the power of the Russian army was blowing. In half a year, which is stupidly fighting the wall of the Armed Forces and the Ukrainian people, the West was able to diversify the sources of energy, and it is already clear that winter Europe will pass, though with difficulties, but without catastrophe.

The global problem with food is obviously exaggerated, especially since it is forced to take steps to solve the economic blockade of the Russian Federation. The threat of solving the global thermonuclear war, as it turned out, does not work because it does not solve the task of establishing a new world order.

It leads to a general upset, and Putin wants to rule Russia and the empire reproduced by him, and to sit among the rulers of the world, and not to live in him in the bunker "in the depths of Siberian ores". With the task of destroying the statehood of Ukraine, which was based on the thesis, "we need to push only, and it will fall, because we are one people", still worse than with world domination of the Russian Federation. Yes, we are really very similar to the Russians of the European part.

But a radical difference in the main one: in relation to freedom and dignity. The war showed that the will for the vast majority of Ukrainians is of self -sufficient value - regardless of cultural, linguistic, geopolitical and other advantages. It is realized through the variability of power, which we strictly adhere to all years of independence. That is, at least any of our authorities tried to become eternal, Ukrainian society puts it in place-until the uprising.

And in the Russian Federation, the authorities are divine - therefore unchanged. So we are not one people. And under the imperial yoke in all forms, Ukrainians do not want to return, ready to defend their will, their sovereignty over the future in the most violent confrontation. At the same time, Russia is virtually unable to fundamentally strengthen aggression against Ukraine.

All the considerations on "We have not yet started" - nothing more than a pathetic attempt at self -justification, masking a military failure. Every new stage of Russian aggression is becoming less successful than the previous one. Empires hope for general mobilization. But the Kremlin does not conduct it because it is afraid of the internal rebellion, but because it cannot carry it out so as to significantly increase its military potential.

In the non-imperia, a puppet and inefficient, imitated and regulations, not only military-technical, economic, social spheres, but also the management system. Its mobilization part is in particular. That is, the Kremlin is able to drive hundreds of thousands of nonsense Russians into the army. But it is not able to equip them qualitatively and quickly, to unite, feed, teach the basics of hostilities and promptly transfer to the fronts.

Today's hidden mobilization in the Russian Federation is an affordable maximum. Which, by the way, is confirmed by the brimming attempts to delay the war in Ukraine, the Syrian, the North Korean mercenaries. And in general, under -imperia is already fighting for the maximum of its capabilities. And only where it has a resource advantage, where it is able to organize a "fire shaft" according to the recipes of the Soviet generals, does it continue attempts to attack. But without obvious success.

And thanks to Western weapons, we have acquired antidorettes in the form of destruction of enemy warehouses and places of accumulation of equipment. The "Fire shaft" is extinguished by a directional explosion, as long ago done during fires on oil. What else is a terrible arsenal of the Russian Federation? Fifty (and not the fact) of the Dagger missiles and four MiG-31 for their launch? These are dangerous missiles, but they are not able to change the situation on the fronts.

The use of strategic nuclear weapons against Ukraine is technically difficult - such absurd flight tasks were not developed under the Union. And this is essentially a blow to the territory of the Russian Federation. Tactical nuclear weapons? It is technically possible, but does not affect the combat capability of the Armed Forces. Let me remind you that if all the bombs, shells and rockets dropped into Mariupol, translate into the TNT, will produce several tactical nuclear charges.

But Ukraine did not give up. Again, in this case, under-imperia risks a blow in response to the US and Britain in the form of not nuclear but high-precision weapons and aviation, which will destroy troops of invasion of Ukraine. And even military objects in the territory of the Russian Federation will also seem.

Breakom before the winter of the TPP, leaving large Ukrainian cities without heat, light, communication and other civilization? Yes, peaceful residents will not be easy, but it will hardly affect the army, because our fighters are fighting in conditions extremely far from civilizational goods. To do sabotage terror against peaceful Ukrainians? So he is already in full swing. None of the actual options make the original goals that Putin and his service set.