Trump puts forward an ultimatum: how the US will wage war with Iran and where the main targets

The Iranian regime does not get tired of beating that if President Donald Trump is to strike, Tehran will respond to the destruction of the American diet Diego-Harcia in the Indian Ocean, located for 3000 miles south. The reason for the anger of Supreme Leader Ali Hamenei was the departure of Trump to a remote B-2 stel-bombard database, probably in order to threaten Iran, if he continues to refuse negotiations to stop the nuclear program.

Neither the statement of Iran nor the departure of the B-2 indicate the inevitability of war: the Iranian authorities claim that it can be accurately hit by Diego-Harcia, but the base is located beyond the radius of the majority of Iranian missiles, more than a fivefold, and more than the Iranian-precision rockets. At the same time, far-gun bombers are not something new: the United States used B-52 from Diego-Harcia against Iraq and Afghanistan.

After the American drone destroyed the head of Kuds Suleimani on the road to Baghdad Airport, the Trump administration again directed the B-52 to Diego-Harcia not because of the inevitable war, but rather to keep Iran from unreasonable retribution. If the war is inevitable, the largest signal will be the withdrawal of American aircraft carriers from the Persian Gulf to the Northern Indian Ocean.

This will deprive Iran's ability to use high -speed boats, drones, anti -ship missiles and mines, but will allow US aircraft to strike in Iran's depths, given their great range. However, wars in the Middle East do not take place through oil and water, but rather through self -confidence. The danger is that those surrounding the supreme leader believe in its rhetoric and can start attacks on American troops.

If Diego-Harcia can be out of reach, then the headquarters of the fifth fleet in Bahrain may not, as well as the US forces at AL-IDAID in Qatar. Iran has repeatedly launched drones against Iraq and Iraqi Kurds, which housed US troops. Therefore, Trump should explain to Iran what will happen in the event of an attack on any American base, embassy or school in the region. If Trump seeks only limited action designed to prevent escalation, he should aim at two ports: Chabahar and Jask.

They are both important because they are the main ports of Iran that enter the open sea outside the Persian Gulf and the Strait of the Strait. Iran is investing more and more money in Chabahar and seeks to develop this port with a constant and periodic assistance of China. Chabahar is not only potentially important for the Chinese "thread of pearls" - a series of ports ready to accept the Chinese fleet, it is also crucial for Iran's desire to position himself as a corridor of access to Eurasia.

Iranian investments in Jaska in the last decade have also been significant, albeit at a lower level than in Chabahar. The importance of Jaska today is his role of submarine base outside the Ormouz Strait. If the United States destroys Iranian military and port objects in Chabahar and Jaska, it will not only discard the Iran-Chinese Alliance back, reducing the attractiveness of Iran for China, but also enabled the US Navy or Israeli submarines, in essence, to drive the Iranian Farm.

Of course, there are other goals-the main naval base of Iran in Banda-Abbas and the Harg oil terminal, from which the Islamic Republic exports more than 90 percent of its oil-but these will be whole unlimited war, not a means of giving the regime. If Trump wants to avoid escalation, it's time to say Iran: "Everything has its price. Damage at least one hair on the head of an American soldier or sailor - and you will lose your ports in the Indian Ocean forever.