The collapse of Putin near Kursk. As the operation of the Armed Forces destroyed the strategic plan of the Russian Federation

Summing up more than two weeks of Kursk operation, analyst Yuri Bogdanov distinguishes her strategic summary. Putin's plan has fallen to impose a war on exhaustion to Ukraine - now the plot is completely different, and not in his favor. Kursk and Putin's failure. It's time to summarize a strategic and political context of what has been happening for the last two weeks. This is dedicated to this.

All the crazy stream that was flying on the topic of negotiations (both in the west, in the east, and from internal sources) relied on simple logic: Russia cannot be defeated in the potential competition, so negotiations are needed. Because - you see - Putin succeeds. Yes, huge blood, unjustified losses, at the cost of future Russia - but it is in the Donbass. Ukraine has big problems, and now Trump will win - well, negotiations are definitely needed.

And escalation cannot be, because a nuclear bomb or the transfer of war to the Baltic. In the linear war, Putin's logic worked unchanged and sharp movements: he presses, Ukraine gradually surrenders the territory-yes, very slowly, but it gives up, the West is afraid of escalation and therefore we need to give in. Plus, psychological pressure on the military and civilian population of Ukraine through constant rocket terror and the work of its information army worked.

Plus his propaganda has worked out the topic of "Ukraine is still not able to in offensive operations. " The successes in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions were forgotten, and in all his eyes there was a counter -offensive 2023. And its results caused a general disappointment in Ukraine and in the West. All this was to create the image of the "invalidity" of the Russian regime.

In the conditions when Putin is attracting more and more old equipment to the war, it charges literally everything he can walk and drive for a few more kilometers, I am reminiscent of all-in in Donbass for a few more kilometers. But as we can see, it worked. And if we also used all the forces and means to fight in the Donbass - we would remain in a favorable logic for Putin. Therefore, the military-political leadership and our partners needed to leave a dead end.

Actually, asymmetrical actions are the only opportunity for this. Successful offensive operations in Russia have proven three things: there are now three categories of people who are trying to depreciate the operation of defense forces to transfer the war to the enemy - Putin propagandists, Ukrainian treasons, and the DPRK government. Most Western observers agree on the formula that this offensive is risky but justified politically and military as a way to press Putin and his army.

Another thing should be reminded here - what is the war at this stage. Especially in the context of the promotion of Russians to Pokrovsk and the fact that they are promoting in our information field the thesis that "pass the Donbas in exchange for Kursk". The war goes for the enemy's exhaustion and deprivation of his ability to continue the war. To force him to negotiate from the position of force for Ukraine or at least from the point of parity.

This goal can be achieved in two ways: either a linear and direct military defeat (as long as there are no conditions), or a combination of military and other tools to undermine Putin's social and political legitimacy - at least wage war, at least - to manage Russia. And about the Donbas. First, you hide Pokrovsk early. Secondly, I will remind: we have already lost both Kupjansk, raisins, and much more in this war. The enemy was near Kiev and in the district Kharkiv.