Brics is expanding: the victory of Russia or another PR PRIR Kremlin and its allies?

Saudi Arabia, Iran, United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Ethiopia have joined Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa in the year of the Russian Federation's presidency in this organization. In his speech, the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin did not hide about this. He stated that dozens of countries are in line to join this anti -Western club.

However, did the new 2024 indeed begin with such a good gift by authoritarian regimes, is it only another "Potemkin settlement" of the world scale? According to World Bank estimates, in 2019, BRICS countries occupied 29. 3% of the world with a population of more than 3 billion people (41% of the world), their total economies were 24% of world GDP, and the share of trade was 16% in relation to world .

With the addition of new participants, the share of BRICS economies will be about 37% of the world's gross domestic product, and the population will be almost half (47% of the world's population). From the very beginning, Brics was conceived as an alternative to the Great Seven (G-7), which includes the USA, Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom, Germany, France and Italy).

According to these BRICS indicators, the Seven Club (almost 10% of the world population and a third of global GDP) - figures and statistics that are so fond of Kremlin and Beijing. However, historical practice shows that dry statistical figures do not always adequately reflect the true state of things.

The BRICS countries have indeed focused on their borders almost half of all humanity, but it is not the poorest and poorly educated half of it, while the G-7 countries live the richest inhabitants of the planet. GDP volumes are increasingly difficult. India and China are indeed the main engines of the world economy of the XXI century, but they are currently continue to operate within the global economic system, a key element of which is the US dollar.

And so, whether they can change the current state of things will largely depend on the status of this geopolitical project. Interestingly, the concept of BRics originated in the West. It was introduced into use (however, as Bric, that is, without South Africa) Financial analyst Goldman Sachs Jim O'nil. At that time, it was about the economies of the secondary states, which in the early XXI century developed very dynamically.

However, it has not passed ten years as the idea of ​​abstract economic theory was transformed into a very practical geopolitical reality. The first summit of Bric (yes) took place in Russia in 2009, and a year later, a couple joined the club, which gave it a modern look (South Africa - English letter S in an abbreviation). It was a completely political decision, because South Africa had already lost its economic potential at the time, but provided African representation in the organization.

The political principle is also preserved in the latter expansion, as Indonesia and Nigeria's economies are much more powerful than Egyptian and Ethiopian, but these states have now been denied joining the organization. This is explained by the variety of BRics. The only thing that unites all its members is to improve their status in international relations.

They are a planetary proletariat that does not like the current public elite as a large seven, but conflicts are raging between the club members themselves, which can potentially even develop into armed confrontation. Thus, between India and the PRC - the largest economies of BRICS - there are territorial disputes, and in recent years there have been clashes between the border guards of these states.

Brazil India and South Africa are market democracies, while authoritarian regimes are predisposed in the PRC and the Russian Federation, who are prone to totalitarian. Each participant in this colorful association is afraid of over -strengthening of the other, which led to some braking in the expansion and such a composition of new participants - each country balances the influence of a certain current member of BRICS.

Yes, if Iran is clearly a prostitute creation, then a good relationship in India is good with Saudi Arabia. Interestingly, two pairs of conflicts are distinguished from five new participants. In the fall of 2022, a war between Iran and Saudi Arabia almost broke out, and Egypt has claims against the Ethiopian Dam on the Nile River. Therefore, from the very beginning, the participants of the BRICS resembled Swan, pike and Cancer from a well -known Ukrainian proverb and continue to keep this trend.

It is worth noting that at a summit in Johannesburg, it was decided to accept six states, but Argentina changed his mind after the president's change. This weakened the position of Brazil, because it was the creation of Da Silva who was Argentina with previous President Albert Fernandez. The only trend that can be traced in this informal proletarian club is an authoritarian vector of development.

Four out of five "recruits" are authoritarian, even despotic states (except for Ethiopia, which is difficult to call exemplary democracy). In the direction of strengthening authoritarianism, all states Brics move (simply at different speeds). Interestingly, the Russian Federation, when it founded Brics, was a G-8-the same elite club of the richest and the smartest. However, it was excluded through the annexation of Crimea in 2014.

In Moscow, they chose "the first guy in the countryside than the last in the city", but after the failure in the war against Ukraine, it is difficult to call even the second in this union. Are there any projects in BRICS that do not allow this organization to be called a discussion club of authoritarian leaders? The most significant achievement of the organization was the creation of a new $ 100 billion development bank development bank, which even issued $ 33 loans.

Basically, they concerned a variety of infrastructure. He was initially headed by India's representative, and is now managed by the impeachment of Brazil's President Dilma Rusef as a result of impeachment. It was in the currency sphere of BRICS that he formulated his most clear vision. Members of the organization seek to deprive the dollar status of international currency.

The whole 2023 years of creating the ideas of creation on the basis of a new bank development bank for settlement between members of the organization. However, the main public promoter of this idea was Alberto Fernandez, former President of Argentina. His successor Havier Mili, on the contrary, proposes to introduce the US dollar for settlements in Argentina. So far, BRICS Member States are trying to switch to national currency payments.

Yes, now part of the settlements between the Russian Federation and India are made in Rs. However, this path is full of various obstacles - for example, it is difficult to convert to some other currency. If you simplify, no one wants to buy it. In practice, this means that in all the currency revenue from trade with India, Russia can only buy back goods in India itself.

This, of course, favorably to the Indians, but it is unlikely that Moscow would agree to such trade, if she had a choice she had deprived herself, now on various trade restrictions due to aggression against Ukraine. The case may help attract oil topexers. However, what will be the benefit of Saudi Arabia himself and the United Arab Emirates? For them, it is an element of prestige, as well as certain security guarantees from Iran, which is now part of them with one political club.

However, as mentioned above, membership in BRICS does not guarantee conflicts with another member of the organization. Iran was the largest beneficiary from a rational point of view. For him, this is another stage of exit from international isolation, in which the country has been over forty years. The step is not too big, but as you know, the biggest journey begins with a small step. In political interaction, the situation is even more unfortunate.

The American journalist from Hong Kong Frank Cheng notes that almost every BRICS summit states the need to reform the UN and expand its Security Council at the expense of Brazil, India and South Africa. However, when it comes to practical decisions, they are vetoed by the PRC, which last time stated the need for further discussions and transfer of a permanent member to the UN Security Council instead of India to a state of Africa, obviously not couples.

This is the kind and full of mutual support and trust the atmosphere prevails in this unification. As a result, it is worth saying that Brics is the most organized political movement at the interstate level, which stands for revolutionary changes in the world order. Over the past two years, we have seen in Ukraine almost all the shortcomings of the democratic form of government - from populism to bureaucracy and lack of will to make difficult decisions.

However, the history of BRics shows that authoritarian modes are also far from ideal. Excessive self -centeredness and suspicion on the face of paranoia do not allow them to consolidate and act as a single front with a consistent position, even in matters of really important to them, such as in the case of international calculations. For Ukraine, BRICS - an organization founded by Russia is certainly hostile, especially after Iran's accession.

However, it is not necessary to overestimate its weight. It is too colorful. Kiev should focus on bilateral relations with the rest of the organization, try to change their neutral status to more positive to themselves. If the situation with Argentina is a smiling of fate, then the position of Saudi Arabia, which has taken to organize meetings on peaceful settlement on the conditions of Ukraine - is the result of hard diplomatic work.