There will be more shelling. What should be prepared for Ukrainians in the next two months

Finishing straight. Any statements during this period (even the most unpleasant for us), but which do not imply before the beginning of November, do not mean anything and pursue exclusively electoral goals. This applies not only to the US but also to EU and NATO officials that go in September-October. Only the facts expressed in the material are important. It is necessary to discard everything "deeply symbolic", if it is not "deep material".

Each player has a vision of the desired result and how the situation with the war can affect the balance of different subjects (Middle East, Taiwan, Africa, etc. ). This will cause moves. The current US administration shows that the most desirable scenario for 60 days is that there is some visibility of control or reconciliation. Without sharp movements. The help packages in the last month seem quite conservative.

Plus, there is a risk that the current US president will not fully take advantage of assistance allocation (PDA). And what the Congress approved will not be implemented. Negative can be confirmed (or refuted) in two days, on the next frame. Some partner states have already reported that the decision to assist Ukraine for 2025 will be made in November following the voting in the United States.

In the bureaucratic plan, this means that rhythmic assistance (if any) will not start from January 1, but closer to spring. That is, the 2025th year is in the fog. Without assessing the amount of assistance, it is very difficult to talk about any prospects. A number of 40 yards, named at the NATO summit while remains a phantom. To continue the onset without pauses, the enemy has a critical need to mobilize.

After September 8, when a series of regional elections end, the likelihood of such a step will increase. However, a new public wave of mass mobilization is an action that the US will be forced to respond. The nuance is that even if the Russian Federation forces mobilization from Monday, there will be no special effect on Earth until November. But you can provoke unwanted moves of the US.

In this connection, there are many reasons on the topic of available agreements: Russia does not escalate the elections, and the US is not allowed and punished by a decrease in the level of assistance when we twist. There is no point in commenting. Without real information, it is conspiracy. But what to keep on the edge of consciousness: we do not know what the result of the US election considers the best for itself.

It is likely that just before the election (late October - beginning of November), Putin will decide to give a pass to any of the candidates (as it was with the exchange against the backdrop of Harris's nomination). It can be both a demonstrative peacekeeping gesture and exacerbation. The facts are as follows. For 10 months of operations in the Avdeevsky direction, Russian troops seized about 1000 square meters. km (area of ​​territory liberated from Kadyrivs in Kursk region).

Fall in the depths they advanced 35-38 km. The width of the breakthrough on average is 25 km. It is already noticeable that Rosarmia has no strength to press a lot in two directions. In the Pokrovsky direction, they are now busy providing flanks. In the fall we enter much better than could. The enemy had ambitious plans for the spring and summer campaign. But at first they burned some of the troops north of Kharkov.

Then the Kursk operation delayed a remarkable proportion of the remaining reserves that could now press on the same Pokrovsk or wedged between Kharkov and the amounts. The map shows three speeches (Siverskyi, Toretsky and Kurakhivsky), which the Russians would like to cut. But they need additional troops that are not right now (and in the next two months there will be no definitely, even in the case of announcing their mobilization there will be no month).

There is an attempt to cut our troops in the Kharkiv region to go to Oscol. Even if the situation is deteriorating in any of the sites, it will not cause the whole country and the entire defense of dramatic consequences for the whole country. That is, it can be bad, but the scale of this "bad" should be objectively evaluated. What can aggravate sharply is the mood of people when they stop resisting. And loss of management. Cards for the nearest round have already been handed over.

We do not know how they will be prepared, what moves are prepared, but everything has happened. In the next two months, it is difficult to count on a rapid revenue that will play until early November. Russia still cannot cope with our army. Even if the enemy continues movement, purely military means will not be able to destroy us. And mobilization will not help them in a short segment.

The only direction where the Kremlin can increase the efforts of existing resources are atrocities against civilians that will not seem to escalation, but will shabby stability. If you do not destroy the motivation of the Ukrainian army and support the army in the rear, it is necessary to carry out mobilization, which in the Russian Federation do not want.

By putting pressure on civilians, the Russian Federation creates a fork: the ability to push our army with a support for hidden mobilization and mercenaries, as well as forming a basis for negotiations. This spirals: the lower the stability of Ukraine, the less help we really get. The nuance is that Ukrainian citizens demonstrate outstanding stability. Due to the Kremlin's plans, they have repeatedly disrupted.

For the next two months, the situation is: those who form the grades, it is time to record: Baiden's statement that "Poltava is an attempt to break the will of the people", against the backdrop of prohibition to use long -range means and conservative approach to assistance. In the desire to break the will of Ukrainians, Russia is not alone. Even if it's not. And it seems - yes.