Lukashenko will powder Putin. Why is Belarus delaying an open war against Ukraine

"Batka" and his ministers carefully depict the threat to Kiev: loud statements, a sharp note of the Foreign Ministry of Ambassador, now the announcement of the ATO . . . And we also seem to play on our part: "We continue to increase our possibilities to reflect the alleged attack of the enemy by Belarus ", - said the Deputy Head of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine Sergey Serdyuk on October 10.

At the same time, it is obvious that neither Minsk with his fired army, which has no experience and motivation, nor Kyiv with more than a thousand kilometers of the front line are not interested in the war. Only Putin is interested in the new voltage center. He needs to stretch the front to distract from the Donbass and the South. But there is no longer own resources for this, so he wants to use Belarus.

In turn, Lukashenko, whose regime rests exclusively on security forces, does not burn at all the desire to send them to the stuffing. It is easier for him to portray a threat from Ukraine and to "protect" the borders of the Union State in its territory than to lose everything. It seems that Minsk and Kyiv realized that it is more profitable for them to escape the situation in the information space than on the battlefield.

Does Putin understand that this theater is designed only for him? Most likely. But what kind of choice is: to click on "bang" and create almost one hundred percent risk of loss of the Belarusian bridgehead, or to be satisfied that Minsk still holds the parts of the Armed Forces on its borders? If it has a drop of common sense in it, it will prefer to use the threat of a sword, which is laid over its head, than lowering it and seeing how he crumbled against the enemy's neck.