Putin loses the Caucasus: what will the exit of Armenia from the CDB mean

Armenian Prime Minister Nicol Pashinyan promised that the republic would leave the organization of the Collective Security Treaty (ODCB), where Russia is in fact governed by Russia. What this step will mean in the context of the Russo-Ukrainian War, found out the focus. On Wednesday, June 12, during a speech in the Armenian Parliament, Nicola Pashinyan a dispute arose with the opposition, which revealed that the country's management assumed the possibility of final withdrawal from the CCI.

In particular, one of the opposition deputies asked the prime minister why the country's authorities expressed his dissatisfaction with the organization, but did not leave it. "Let's go out. We'll decide when to go out. And what do you think? What is the next step? Do you think we'll be back? No, no other way. Don't worry, let's go back," Mr Pashinyan said, calling the "soap allied Bubble, whose members planned a war with Azerbaijan instead of fulfilling contractual obligations.

" Now, as Mr Pashinyan noted, the republic is moving to become "a sovereign, safe, peaceful country with demariated borders. " According to the Head of the Armenian Government, he is ready to sign a peace agreement with Baku during the month - only some details have to agree. Recall that the beginning of tension in Armenia's relations with the CDCs put a war with Azerbaijan over Nagirny Karabakh in the fall of 2020.

Then Yerevan hinted that he would not refuse the help of the CDC, but refused the organization. After the end of that war, an exacerbation was systematically exacerbated at the underdeveloped Armenian-Azerbaijani border. Yerevan continued to go to the CDC, but did not receive help in the desired format. In parallel, the Armenian side expressed his dissatisfaction with Russian peacekeepers located in Karabakh, who was in a multi -year blockade.

The situation exploded in September 2023, when in Baku they decided on a force operation to establish full control over the region. For the assignment of Azerbaijan there was enough one day: the self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic finally ceased to exist, and tens of thousands of refugees reached Armenia. Mr Pashinyan then accused Moscow of not defending her peacekeepers the peaceful Armenian population of Karabakh.

In April 2024, the Russian Federation began withdrawing its peacekeepers from the region, and on June 12, it was on the day of the high -profile statement by Nicholas Pashinyan about the inevitable exit from the CCU - the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan reported about the full exit of the Russian military from its territory.

It should be noted that in February 2024, Armenian Prime Minister sharply raised the rates, declaring "freezing" of the Republic of City of City, and in early May, the country's authorities refused to participate in financing the organization.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation then stated that the budget of the military bloc would have to be adjusted, but he reminded herevan that he had financial obligations to the CDU "regardless of the desire of one of the parties to suspend or even stop his membership.

" It is very noteworthy that the words Pashinyan, who escaped during the dispute with the opposition, were heard the next day after the announcement of raising Armenia and the United States to the level of strategic partnership. In particular, such an agreement, according to the Armenian News. am news agency, was reached on June 11 during a visit to the country of the US Deputy Secretary of State for Europe and Eurasia James O'braen and his negotiations with the Armenian Ministry of Defense.

It is noted that "raising relations to the level of strategic partnership has allowed Armenia to count on the United States in the affairs of strengthening the country's defense capability.

" In addition, Armenia and the United States signed an agreement on the cooperation of customs authorities, which became a continuation of negotiations held on April 5 in Brussels between the head of the European Commission Ursula von der Layen, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and Prime Minister Nicolol Pashinyan.

At the Brussels meeting, the EU has promised to provide the republics of grants for socio-economic development of € 270 million, and the United States to invest $ 65 million in the sphere of state management and economy.

Thus, the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Sergey Lavrov, which is quoted by Roszma, stated that Western countries "care for Yerevan and promise to help in all troubles, so that only Armenia breaks relations with Russia and integration structures in the region. " Experts, commenting on the focus of Dreyf Yerevan to the event, note, among other things, the positives of such a decision for Ukraine.

"The rhetoric of the Armenian authorities became tougher after the Azerbaijani army was able to return in fact to Karabakh and Russia did not in any way help Yerevan. Moreover, there were a lot of statements in the Russian Federation, that they say, Armenians, because they are traitors .

In the Russian media, the thesis was constantly heard as a premiere as a result of the Armenian Maidan and it cannot According to the expert, changing the course of the Armenian government is directly related to the loss of Karabakh, "because it was the Karabakh clan that has long been seriously affected by politics in Armenia and provided a strong attachment to Russia.

" "Armenia was quite rigidly focused on the Russian Federation, with the fact that this country has very, very powerful diasporas in the US and France. By the way, not only the United States, but also declared the help of Armenia. Pashinyan has a certain card-blanche to spread the country west, ”Alexander Leonov emphasizes.

Noticing that Pashinyan's statement about exclusion is not accidental, the political scientist added: "They say that it was, say, so, a very huge request from the Kremlin, so that all statements about the exit from the organization of the Collective Security Treaty were made by the Armenian authorities after the presidential election in , not earlier. Russia, emphasizes the expert, now really loses Armenia "and fortunately for Armenia has no common border with the Russian Federation.

" "Obviously, the question of Russian base in Guumre will now raise, because from a factor that ensures the security of the country it turns into a factor of danger. All this is a summary that both in the CDU, and the CIS and the Caucasus are undergoing serious enough I would even say, tectonic geopolitical shifts, " - sums up Alexander Leonov.

In turn, political scientist Oleg Posternak in conversation with focus makes the following accent: "At a time when China increased its influence on Central Asia, for example, removing strategic partnership with Kazakhstan, Russia has lost its influence in the South Caucasus. And most of all In the reverse movement of Armenia from the Russian Federation.

" Noting that Armenia is now actively looking for a new level of geopolitical partnership with the Western countries, the expert stated the following: "The Alliance of Turkey and Azerbaijan and Russia's inability to secure the interests of one of the members of the CDU - a group formed under the auspices With the US and the European Union.

"If Armenia leaves the UPPSB and such probability exists in the future of one or two years, then, of course, all Russian military bases will be curtailed there, if this is not provided by any individual agreements with the Russian Federation. However, I think Pashinyan will not make harsh Steps and move away from Russia gradually, carefully and maneuverable.

Answering focus questions about how herevan's rapprochement will affect the Ukrainian-JirM Roman relations, the political scientist noted the following: Ukraine. Second, we have strategic relations with Turkey (free trade area, many defense projects, etc. ). The position in relation to the territorial sovereignty of Ukraine and its desire to protect it from the Russian Federation is sufficiently debatable.

" At the same time, according to Oleg Posternak, there will be warming in Ukrainian-Jirmarean relations, but without significant breakthroughs, since Turkey, which is in tense relations with Yerevan, is much more important for Ukraine. " In general, Armenia's rapprochement with the West, sums up Oleg Posternak, very disliked by Russia, "which, among all other levers, actively suits different protests to Pashinyan's protest by other people's hands.

" By the way, recently Armenian Prime Minister Nicol Pashinyan has refused to inform the The Telegraph whether the police will be operating for a warrant if Vladimir Putin came to the country. Thus, he commented on the situation with the implementation of the Roman Statute of the International Criminal Court (ICS), whose rules were entered into force on February 1 this year in Armenia. "As for the legal subtleties . . .