The Peace Summit will not put a point. Why will the war out either half a year or a year

Journalists ask: when can the Russian-Ukrainian war be completed? However, in the perception of the topic of completion of the Russian-Ukrainian war and in Ukraine, and often in the West, the extremes are dominated, far from reality. Last year, we prevailed with extremely inflated expectations that a little more, the event would give us tanks, and we will release all the occupied territories, including Crimea. And then the war will end in our victory.

These were very naive ideas about the end of the war. There are now much less illusions in Ukraine. But the belief in the miracle remains. The idea that the war will end this year due to the arrival of NATO troops in Ukraine, it is a kind of "connected Manilov", deprived of real grounds. Those who voice such theories, let Baiden be read to the US Congress, in which the US President explicitly said that US soldiers will not fight in Ukraine.

The high -profile statements of French President on the possible presence of NATO troops in Ukraine have not yet met the support of most of his colleagues in the North Atlantic Alliance. In addition, European countries of NATO both organizationally and resource and socio-psychologically have not yet been ready for such a war, which has been going on in Ukraine for over two years.

But the main factor in NATO's restraint from direct participation in the war against Russia is the risk of nuclear war. Putin still restrains the same risk from the impact in the neighboring countries of the West. Another extreme is the idea that a little more - and Russia will overcome in the present war. This spirit has written a recent article in Die Welt.

The author of this article suggests that US military assistance to Ukraine will be sharply reduced, regardless of the election result, and Europe lacks "forces and political will" to provide the necessary assistance on its own. In his opinion, Ukraine is unlikely to keep the front, and Russia has enough resources and global support to continue the war for several more years. Therefore, the end of the war can take place this year by freezing hostilities.

What exactly happens, the author does not specify, but apparently suggests that it will happen under Russia. The article in Die Welt greatly exaggerates existing problems and extrapoints them in the near future, but the opposite trends and factors are silenced or ignored. The theme of the end of the war through peace talks is also perceived through extremes, especially in our country. One extreme is the expectation of the negotiated end of the war now.

It doesn't matter in what way and on what conditions. The main thing is that this war is over. Proponents of this position see a hint of a possible peace in any Western publication on this topic, in any statement on Putin's peace or one of the Western leaders (such as Scholz). In this case, the desired is given for the valid. The exact opposite extreme is the conspiracy and paranoid attitude to the theme of the end of the war through peace talks.

Any political statement, discussion, or even a purely academic article on peace talks is seen as "betrayal" as a secret and criminal plan for the secret surrender of Ukraine Putin. This view is very noticeable in public. Hence the suspicious attitude towards the global peace summit initiated by Ukraine. There will be no unpredictable consequences of this summit. This summit is not about the end of the war and not about negotiations with Russia. In addition, Russia will not be on this summit.

This summit is dedicated to the promotion of the formula of the President of Zelensky and our position on the conditions of end of the war. For Russia, our conditions for the end of the war (the formula of the President of Zelensky) are unacceptable, as it is unacceptable for us Russian conditions of peace. In this sense, the situation remains as hopeless as a year ago. Moreover, the likelihood of peace talks has even decreased at this point.

Russia is preparing for the escalation of the war and ready for peace only on its own conditions, which became much tougher and ultimate than two years ago in Istanbul. In the West, it is well known and understand that Putin can be forced to real peace talks only by stopping it in Ukraine. This is a very simple answer to the question of when the war is over: no one (neither in Moscow, Kiev, nor in Washington, Berlin or Paris, does not know when the war is over.

I do not see any real prerequisites (neither military nor political) for the end of the war in the next six months, with high probability and by the end of the year. I will not give further. Most serious analysts believe that the Russo-Ukrainian war is unlikely to end before the US presidential election is over. But this is not a decisive factor. The war can be delayed for several years, and its scale can go beyond Ukraine.

At the same time, peace talks can be initiated in parallel, which, however, will not immediately end the war. The decisive factor in the end of the war will be the course and results of hostilities, the resource provision of warring parties. But the conditions and the very possibility of the end of the war will also be influenced by the development of the socio-political and economic situation in Russia, Ukraine, the USA and the EU, and the general international situation.