Putin is threatening - the caravan goes. Will Ukraine be able to export the grain crop to Europe and Asia this year

Russia is unable to break the grain initiative and the supply of Ukrainian grain continues. Focus tells in detail how the crop is exported through ports that operate alternative channels and where Ukrainian grain actually gets. Contrary to Russia, the situation around the marine grain corridor, on March 18, the Minister of Infrastructure Oleksandr Kubrakov reported that the "grain initiative" was prolonged for 120 days.

This was a positive signal for Ukrainian agricultural producers - exporters who were in a state of great uncertainty. We will remind, in Russia the day before it was stated that they agree to the continuation of the grain agreement only for 60 days until May 18, 2023, while Ukraine was fundamentally insisted on 120 days, as it was before.

It is interesting that even talking about reducing the term of the next extension of the agreement to 60 days has already spoiled the situation for Ukrainian exporters. "Representatives of the Russian side voiced that the prolongation of the grain agreement will be only 60 days instead of 120 days.

This would allow the old crop to export, while forward programs for the harvest of 2023 would be in question that most traders would not want to take on the risks contracts of grain of the new crop, " - said Alexander Buukli, Executive Director of the First Ukrainian Agricultural Cooperative (Start).

The focus interlocutor adds that in a situation of uncertainty about the duration of the grain corridor, manufacturers are forced to sell a lot of grain in a spot market, which will negatively affect their income.

Due to the Russian Information Revolution of the short-term prolongation of the agreement, according to Alexander Verzhikhovsky, the operating director of the company of the IMC, the actual blocking of the work of the "grain initiative" during the last three to four weeks, which was explained by the enormous warning of market operators, because no one knew with what another. " The wicked "for every next stage of negotiations will come Russia.

Interestingly, the "vibrations" do not stop and despite the continuation of the agreement. In particular, on March 20, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation reminded that in Moscow they decided to reduce the period of another prolongation to 60 days and expressed a threat to terminate the agreement.

In addition, at the International Parliamentary Conference Russia - Africa, March 20, Putin, trying to discredit the initiative, stated that 45% of grain exported by the grain corridor received European countries, and only 3% - Africa. In Ukraine, the manipulation of a criminal Russian dictator was quickly denied. The spokesman of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Oleg Nikolenko reported that since August 1, 2022, Ukraine exported 25.

1 million tons of agricultural products to 45 countries through the grain corridor. The geography of exports was as follows: Nikolenko said that part of the Ukrainian grain purchased EU was supplied as a humanitarian re -export to Africa and Asia, which is why the actual fate of exports to the African continent exceeds 11. 6%. If you take into account not only exports by the grain corridor, but also in other ways, the main direction for agricultural producers during the war was the European Union.

"According to the results of 2022, the mutual trade in agricultural products with the EU was $ 16. 5 billion. This is the highest indicator during the validity of the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU," - said Mykola Pugachev, Deputy Director of the National Scientific Center "Institute of Agrarian Economy", Academician. NAAS.

According to Pugachev in 2023, the European Union will remain the chief partner in foreign agricultural trade, since the lack of duties on products from Ukraine, the spent logistics routes and the non -alternativeness of this regional association for road and rail transportation will help to strengthen economic integration. However, the reviews of exporters surveyed by exporters indicate that it is becoming more and more difficult to supply the crop to the EU markets.

"The Poles by administrative means limit imports, through inspections of sanitary services, return of goods. And since Ukrainian exporters are also dumping to get some money, because of this, local farmers suffer. A similar situation is already observed in the Netherlands and Germany. Europe is already oversaturated with Ukrainian grain, " - describes the situation Andriy Booth, director of the Department of Foreign Economic Activity of the Agrotrade group.

Therefore, according to the interlocutor of the focus, the most promising way of export will be the "grain corridor", because maritime transportation is always more profitable than terrestrial and allow to deliver grain to Asia, China, etc. According to Alexander Buukley, the bulk of the grain about 3-3. 5 million tons per month will export the "grain corridor". Meanwhile, the other 1. 5-2.

0 million tons per month should be exported with the help of road and rail logistics to ports of Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Germany or for processing in these countries. The focus interlocutor draws attention to the fact that ports are now being built at the Danube Rena, Izmail, Kiliya, which will be stable from the new season to sell some of the grain from the new season.

"Last year, we have discovered and plan to use export capabilities through the ports of the Danube and Western Land Export channels. However, in terms of exports for export logistics, these channels are less beneficial to us than traditional," Alexander Verzhikhovsky confirms. In detail about the spring sowing campaign, promising for the domestic market and exports of culture, Focus wrote in his recent review "Less bread.