Batig and gingerbread: pseudo -referendums require Russian self -mobilization - ISW

According to analysts, the Kremlin hopes to use the results of pseudo -referendums for annexation of captured parts of Donbass, Kherson and Zaporizhzhya regions. This step is primarily aimed at the Russians themselves, which in this case will be agitated to join the ranks of the Russian army to protect the "territory of the Russian Federation". Moscow suggests that this will improve the situation with the formation of the army.

ISW specifies that Vladimir Putin has finally convinced that the current forces were not enough to achieve the goals in Ukraine. In addition, voluntary mobilization has already reached its climax, and without satisfying the request of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. The Kremlin still does not want to declare general mobilization, so it is looking for alternative ways to make Russians fight in Ukraine. And pseudo -referendums in this case are nothing but a propaganda noise.

And if "referendums" can become such a "gingerbread", then the role of "whip" are new Russian laws on mobilization. According to American experts, in Moscow they try to keep Russian citizens from desertion and evasion of conscription, intimidating them with prison. In addition, Putin has repeatedly emphasized that Russian conscripts would not send war to Ukraine.

The so -called attachment of the Ukrainian territories to the Russian Federation gives the Kremlin the desired loophole - in this case, conscripts can be sent to the front to protect Russian land without unnecessary explanations. The six-year-old call cycle in Russia generates about 130,000 soldiers twice a year. The next cycle will last from October 1 to December 31.

In addition, the occupiers' manuals in the captured territories have already announced the formation of voluntary units among the local population to participate in the war. It is obvious that Russia will force people to fight in fighters in Kherson and Zaporizhzhya regions. We will remind, on September 20 the militants "L/DNR" called the date of "referendum" on entry into the Russian Federation.

The fake referendum on the accession of the occupied part of the Luhansk region to Russia will take place between September 23 and 27. Collaborators from Zaporizhzhya and Kherson regions also announced illegal votes, they will take place in the same days. OP Advisor Alexei Arestovich believes that the announcement of mobilization in the Russian Federation and "referendums" is a huge gift in Ukraine. According to him, it will accelerate the revolution in Russia and allow you to end the war faster.