The Russian Federation wants to repeat the 2022 scenario: what is happening in Kharkiv and what cities are in danger

According to the head of Ova Oleg Synigubova, these measures are carried out to take into account the possible change of the front line and the enemy priorities in separate directions. He stressed that the construction of fortifications is part of the planned measures provided for strengthening the defense capability of the region. "In the turn of building fortifications, it is a circular defense of Balakliya and Izium.

I cannot communicate at what stage, let's say so - the administration fulfills its tasks. However, there, of course, that some of the work is performed by the military. that the works go according to the plan and they are fully controlled by our military, " - said Oleg Synigubov. The military expert, the Colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleg Zhdanov noted in a conversation with the focus that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation can concentrate on the attack of Balakliya and Izium.

According to him, this is called a change in priority. "If such structures have started to build, it is likely that Russian troops can start offensive on these areas. Although it would be necessary to start with equipment along the line of combat on the backs of our troops, so that if there would be an intensification To go in defense on more profitable and equipped bonds, "Zhdanov said.

Former SBU employee and military analyst Ivan Stupak reported focus that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation could change their priorities. In particular, based on different scenarios, at any time the enemy can decide that one or another direction is unpromising and concentrating on another. "I want to believe that these structures are built from the account, that there are certain analytical conclusions, reconnaissance forecasts about where the Russians can move.

These structures we need, this is such an investment in the future. Be better to be able to build them in an emergency mode in The last moment, "the analyst explained. When asked why fortifications are built in Balakliya and Izium, which are located south about 50 kilometers from the line of combat collision, not, for example, in Pechenegs, which is closer to Kharkov, Stupak stressed that there is a correction for the internal mentality when we "build" Where you want, not where you need.

" "The military has many times emphasized that it is not necessary to build in the fields. And still in some locations in the fields of fortification are being built, because there is a budget," - said Stupak. According to him, there may be an analysis of the possible movements of the Russians, the area plays a large role. In particular, a shorter distance is possible, but wetlands. Therefore, it is better to take a longer distance, but with an asphalt road and rail.

Such moments are also taken into account when constructing fortifications. Military analyst Dmitry Snegirev is convinced that the occupiers are trying to reproduce the events of 2022, namely the creation of a shock group, which was conditionally called "Izium". "At that time, it was the largest grouping of the enemy, which aimed at the threat of flanking the positions of defense forces in Donetsk region, namely the Slavic-Kramatorsk agglomeration,"-said in conversation with the focus of Snegirev.

So the plans of the enemy forcing the Oskil River, it is possible to move to Izium. However, the main purpose of the invaders is not to promote the depths of the Kharkiv region, but along the river to the Slavic-Kramatorsk agglomeration. "Strategic plans for the occupiers are the entrance to the administrative borders of Donetsk region. Currently, the largest industrial cities of Donetsk region are under control of defense forces," the expert said.

He stressed that, given possible challenges, engineering and forming structures are being built. However, Snegirev noted that these plans of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation were known more than half a year ago, as a result, it is unclear why Synigubov declares the intention to build engineering and forming structures only after the fighting was activated on this front of the front.

"Why is such activation in this direction? There's a short shoulder of the occupiers' logistics, the possibility of supplying ammunition, personnel, equipment at the expense of minor distances from both the Russian Federation and from the occupied territories of Luhansk region. Also in this direction are some of the most combatant units of the Russian army. " , - Dmitry Snegirev emphasized.

Oleg Zhdanov said that in the Kharkiv direction the Russians want to create a bridgehead for capturing Kupyansk, as there is a railway, and to create a buffer zone to protect administrative borders in the Luhansk region. In his opinion, the enemy wants to make the river Oskil on the left bank as a natural obstacle as the Dnieper River in Kherson region. Stupak also believes that for the Russians a priority Kupjansk, in particular, it is 50% already surrounded.

According to him, the invaders want to capture the city again, for Russian propaganda it would be an ideal option. The enemy also requires Kupjansk-node through railway tracks. Ukraine and Russia have the same Soviet track. This facilitates logistics. "The Russians seized, for example, Donetsk. Literally after a couple of hours echelons from Russia go to Donetsk, then in the direction of Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhya regions, Kherson, because you switch only arrows.

If we had a European track, they were able to supply, they were able Only cars, " - explained a military analyst. He said that the European track is 10 centimeters narrower, which is critical. As a result, the enemy could not rail an ammunition, tanks, etc. , it would have had to be on its own or on tracks. Snegirev is convinced that Synagubov should be worried not only for Balaklia and Izium, but also for Kupjansk-Nuzllo, which is in the plans of the enemy as a strategic transport hub.

In particular, it is not only a road but also a railway hub. In a negative scenario for defense forces, it gives the Russians the opportunity to improve their own logistics due to the capacity of the railway. We will remind, on December 18 the commander of the battalion "Achilles" of the 92nd separate assault brigade. Yuriy Fedorenko, Kosian chieftain Ivan Sirko, said that in the Kharkiv direction, Russian saboteurs changed into the Ukrainian military uniform.