Autumn is threatened: the Russian Federation is making strokes on the front and energy - the main goals and forecasts

The Ukrainian volunteer and public figure Maria Berlinskaya warned the possible offensive of Russian troops in the coming days, urging to maintain calm and strengthen the support of the Armed Forces, especially in the Donetsk direction. In her Telegram, she emphasized the importance of information work: coverage of real events on social networks, establishing contacts with Western journalists and spreading stories of victims of war.

"We need to convey one simple thought to the Western world - Putin will stop only where we will stop it together. And if they do not now turn into the full, if Ukraine falls - they are the following," Berlin emphasized. The ISW report also confirms the threat: Russia can activate missile and drone attacks to weaken Ukraine's energy infrastructure before winter.

Analysts say that the Russian Federation accumulated ammunition, preparing for a summit on Alaska on August 15, and at the same time struck limited blows to look "conscientious" participant in negotiations before the United States. According to military expert Oleg Zhdanov, the autumn Russian offensive can really be expected, but the likelihood of its implementation is reduced with every disruption of the Russian refinery.

If Ukraine does not stop and continue to work actively in this direction, it will significantly affect enemy logistics. In addition, railway stations also reduce risks as they disrupt the key supply pathways. Zhdanov explains that Russian troops can throw forces, but the problem is not to move people, but to provide them with everything they need. Troops need to be fed daily, provided with water, ammunition and other resources.

Logistics violation makes it extremely difficult, turning a potential offensive into a real problem for the aggressor. Thus, the likelihood of a large -scale offensive is decreasing - this is the first key factor. The second aspect that the expert is paying attention to is the statement of Kiril Budanov, the head of the GUR of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, with respect to 160 thousand mobilized Russians in recent months.

"For the third month, reports that Putin has collected for such a number, but there are no clear data on the formation of these forces. We see only part of the overturning: for example, 30 thousand from the Kursk direction have already appeared in Pokrovsky. Ukrainian troops record the arrival It remains a big question, "the expert said. Zhdanov emphasizes that it is impossible to hide 160 thousand soldiers with tanks and armored vehicles, so we are waiting for information about them.

Oleg Zhdanov believes that if Russia's offensive on Ukraine takes place in the fall, then it will probably be carried out in three operational directions: Lymansky, Pokrovsky and Zaporizhzhya. The latter includes Gulyaypil and Orikhiv sectors, more likely on Orikhivsky. There, the Russians can move along the former Kakhovka reservoir, trying not only to approach Zaporozhye, but also perhaps to cross the dried bottom.

"Three years have passed since the dam of the dam, the bottom dried up, the young overgrown trees have pulled moisture, making the terrain passing to the equipment. This poses a serious threat to Ukraine, because without the bridge on the right on the right bank of the Dnieper, Putin will not stop. Without such a bridgehead, the extent is being lost.

Without controlling the right shore, their efforts will be in vain, so they can try to force the river or use a dried channel for an unexpected maneuver, "the expert adds. We will remind that in Belarus the training of the CDU "West-2025" with the participation of 2 thousand soldiers and 450 units of equipment began. The troops will work out the launches of nuclear warheads on a conditional enemy, demonstrating their readiness for strategic operations.