The Russian army went into a minus: where half a million soldiers came from and why they get smaller

Blogger Roman Shrik traces the dynamics of replenishment of the Russian army since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine. It is not surprising that to the present moment about half a million of Russian soldiers gathered on the fronts yesterday in Chatika read a rather strange discussion about where, from where, in the Russian Federation, more than 500 thousand personnel on the front. Let's remember how they were gaining. The invasion forces were 180-200 thousand.

They were added to the LDNR, ideologically charged volunteers and any PVC. In the fall of 2022, this farm was tired - and had partial mobilization (the same for 300 thousand). In parallel, Wagner PEC launched a program for ZECs in exchange for pardon.

Zecs from prisons began to pull the Russian Defense Ministry, and the main influx of contractors went at the expense of financial gingerbread - began to offer bonuses for signing the contract and monthly payment, attractive to the inhabitants of the hinterland. The inflow of contractors was greater than the amount of irreversible losses.

It is estimated at 30 thousand people a month, while even according to our General Staff, Russian losses killed and wounded (some of which "rotary") amounted to about 20 thousand. Thus, the Russian group increased in number. In the spring and early summer, regional races for the involvement of heads intensified in the Russian Federation. Apparently, for the implementation and over-execution of the plan give some administrative and tidy buns.

Regional bonuses have increased wildly for signing the contract. Now in fifteen regions, a total one-time payment of $ 10-19 thousand is offered. It is not necessary to enter into a contract at the place of registration, you can choose a region where the bonus is more fatal. Competition. Such exacerbation of the race shows that the total influx of personnel is smaller than you would like the Russian Federation. It is likely that it is no longer possible to attract 30,000 a month.

The program "Get a million rubles and die" also has its limits. At the same time, Russian losses have increased greatly for the last few months (after the opening of the Kharkiv Front and the restoration of decent volumes of ammunition supplies to Ukraine). The irreversible losses integrate the influx of recruits. If it goes so, the Kremlin will have to resort to the whip again. But it is unlikely that it will soon be heard in the last year.