According to him, income from exports of Russian oil amounted to $ 590 billion in 2022 and $ 460 billion in 2023. According to the expert, investing the Russian state in infrastructure and spending on social policies will be complicated if the revenues from oil exports fall to the level of 2015 or 2020. Then the average price for oil was only $ 47 per barrel.
Rogov is convinced that if oil exports fall to $ 350 billion, then Putin is unlikely to continue the war, as otherwise it will not be able to maintain internal stability. According to Gabriel Reed to reporters, the deputy director of the S-RM strategic intelligence company, the fall in export income will affect Russia's ability to finance war.
"The rise in oil prices caused by recent events in Israel can potentially lead to an increase in Russia's export income, thereby helping financing the Russian military machine," she said. According to the genus, oil prices can stabilize if the conflict between Israel and Hamas subside. "Russia will strive to take advantage of increased oil prices as long as possible, but long -term prospects are much less unambiguous," she said.
It is reported that the sale of India and China and the avoidance of new oil embargoes can inspire optimism to the Kremlin that the economy will be able to recover, despite sanctions, but reducing social expenditures and raising taxes on private business will suppress economic growth. "These factors can lead to intensification of anti -government sentiment and further tarnish Putin's reputation among Russian business leaders," Reed added.
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