When you hear the bankruptcy of successful companies yesterday, faults for video game development, or losing the obvious favorite of war is a consequence of a chain of management errors. How do they arise, those mistakes? Due to the need to make a large number of decisions in the face of limited information, resources and a broken feedback system.
In conditions when you build an authoritarian hypercentralized management system based on loyalty and corruption, the feedback system is the first victim. That is why the collapse of all dictatorships is usually fast, epic and, at first glance, unpredictable. The collapse of such systems and their individual institutions - the army, the apparatus of coercion, propaganda - unpredictable precisely because it happens absolutely instantly on a historical scale.
Actually, this is exactly what we are watching in Russia. Just a month or even a year or two for us is a long time. Historically, this is a moment. And now this hysteria and possible mobilization of society in the Russian Federation for the sake of decisive victory over Ukraine and NATO is the introduction into the equation of the Russian regime such a random variable that it does not stabilize the system, but will lay under it a completely exclusive bomb of random action. And it will explode.
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