By Victor Duda
In early December 2024, I predicted that the Kremlin has 6 months before financial difficulties. I was mistaken for 1-1. 5 months, crisis signs began earlier: it is only a small list of progressive disease, which will be exacerbated against the background of reducing prices for Russian oil. All this was visible half a year before the events, but in the West they only saw it now. They reflect on official reports of false Russian authorities and the "average temperature in the hospital".
In my opinion, the best predictor in the Russian economy was its insider - the sub -Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska, who in November 2023 compared the situation with the budget revenues for 2024 with the blow of "ass on the ice". He also made a mistake for a year: he probably felt a significant deterioration, but did not establish some inertia of the movement of the raw material economy. Plus, it was motivated to stop the crisis to prevent personal losses.
If you look into the future, the crisis in the economy of the Russian Federation has already deepened its metastases far beyond the public finance sector and reflection on this fact of Western media. In many industries and regions, the situation is so critical that when I am asked, what is my inflation forecast and GDP for 2026, I answer that in order to make such forecasts, we need to be sure that this Russian Federation will exist in its current form in 2026.
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