Not only amounts: Will the Russian Federation be able to attack Chernihiv and Kyiv in the near future

It is possible to plan offensive actions at Zhytomyr, Rivne and Lutsk. But what about reality? From the point of view of conducting a general military operation, it is necessary: ​​when the enemy has a problem with all points, then such an operation should be restricted a priori. Why? Because when the bulk of reserves and resources goes to the east and south, even in the future 2-3-4 months it is not possible to say a major surgery in the north.

What are the "trumps" of the enemy? And in fact, he already pulled them out. Sumy region now comes almost all the elite of the occupiers - 7 and 76 DSSD, 155 Marine Corps and other most prepared units. The factor of heights to the amounts and behind them imposes some restrictions in the depth of advancement even the elite. Holding battles in the BNR also delay the enemy's resource. And if I talk about the offensive on the amount, I said before.

If Avdiivka was fascinated by a group of 110-115 thousand O/s, ~ 1000 tanks and BBM, ~ 1000 units. Art, how to capture the city 4-5 times twice as much a group? It can be said that defense and positions were prepared in Avdiivka. But there are many in Sumy and approaches. On Chernihiv - it is 1. 5 times further from the border than the amounts. And there is also an unpleasant terrain for the advancing. One thing is 2022, quite another - now. Now the terrain will definitely be a more significant factor.

Kharkiv - the second attempt was already last year. What are the chances that in the case of repetition the enemy can succeed? In Kiev - if in 2022 it was not possible, why should it come out now? 100+ km to the border with RB are played in our favor. And the main question is not 2022 now. The enemy will not work hidden and unimpeded.

And how many o/s and equipment do you need for one operation, for example, for amounts? This is at least 200-250 thousand O/s that need to be deployed without sacrificing other areas. I doubt that in the near future the enemy can do it. A completely different matter is the so -called "buffer zone" in the border of Sumy region. But the defense forces respond to it, and they will do everything to prevent the occupiers from creating it. At present, this danger is quite high.