"Vladimir III" Putin leads a war of all life: with the arrival of Trump's fighting will intensify - Economist

Former Foreign Minister of Ukraine Dmitry Club writes about it in his article for The Economist. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is successful in the creeping occupation of Ukraine, and Putin considers it a significant proof that the current strategy of Ukraine and its partners does not work. Putin considers the West weak and indecisive and is convinced that he will eventually win victory because Western partners will not be able to provide Ukraine with sufficient support.

"Analysts seem to build their models of the world on the assumption that Putin is rational in their decisions. They do not take into account the fact that he leads the war of all his life and that his ambitions go beyond the territory of the territory alone.

On the pages of Russian history He sees himself as Vladimir III, after Peter I, who drowned Ukraine's struggle for independence after the battle near Poltava in 1709, and Catherine II, which eliminated the autonomy of Ukraine in the empire and destroyed its last Cossack citadel in 1795, " In publication. Putin considers the subordination of Ukraine as the main part of his heritage, and any failure will make him the first Russian king to be a fiasco.

On the other side of the Atlantic, US President Donald Trump also won't show weakness. He must demonstrate to the world that his plan - no matter what it may be - much better than the plan of the head of the White House, which is coming, Joe Biden. He may believe that the current strategy will not stop Russia's promotion, and therefore should change. Semi -rides and semi -richness have led to semi -results, Kuleba notes.

Many believe that Trump will leave Ukraine without financial assistance to make it more compliant. But President Vladimir Zelensky will still have some support from America, sent in the last days by Biden administration, and even more than Europe. If the Trump administration stops military support and enable Ukraine to unpleasant peace conditions, some of the Ukrainian society will oppose. Internal riots run the risk of leading the country's internal collapse, suggesting a bullet.

The responsibility for which, he said, will be entirely on Trump. He cannot allow Ukraine to become his Afghanistan. Neither Zelensky nor Putin will agree to anything similar to the Minsk agreements that have reduced the scale but have not stopped hostilities after the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Both leaders have invested too much to go for such half -measures. "The idea that the territory in exchange for security may work is false.

The war will not end if Ukraine returns its borders in 1991, and if both parties agree to a new line of demarcation," the author said. In his opinion, the war will end only when Putin recognizes Ukraine's right to exist as an independent and democratic Western state. He will not accept the legal loss of its territorial heritage, and Ukraine cannot accept another. Even if a temporary decision is reached, it will be just a pause before the next conflict.

"It may seem illogical, but in such circumstances, joining NATO would be the only way to prevent Ukraine from returning its lands in the future. But Putin would not accept Ukraine's membership in NATO," Kuleba said. Neither Trump, nor Putin nor Zelensky can afford to lose. Ukrainian and Russian leaders consider this war decisive for their lives.

Trump cannot bring Ukraine to Ukraine, in which case it would look weak in the short term, and in the long term it would have to restore assistance to Ukraine, which is even more weakened and flowing with blood. "Those who seek de -escalation, headed by the president, may be surprised in the completely opposite months. Now Zelensky and Putin are considering Trump as an opportunity to bow the scales of Libra," Kuleba said.

According to the diplomat, it is still premature to talk about how a new puzzle for Ukraine will be decided, but one thing is clear: instead of focusing on what is acceptable for Ukraine, the only possible way to go forward is to force Russia to accept peace. Recall that former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson believes that if Ukraine falls, in the eyes of the rest of the world everything will look like the event was defeated.