Instead of three days of the truce - thirty: is the Kremlin ready for a concern in the war against Ukraine

This was reported by CNN with reference to US intelligence. However, it has now become more prone to considering a potential peace agreement because of internal economic difficulties and pressure from the US administration, which threatens new sanctions. Nevertheless, American high -ranking officials remain skeptical about Putin's intentions. They believe that even in the case of the agreement, Russia can use it as a tactical pause to restore strength and further offensive.

A representative of Western intelligence noted that Moscow is ready to "play" the United States, limiting its immediate goals, but does not give up long -term plans for Ukraine. The Kremlin hopes that improving relations with the United States will divert attention from the war, and after the tactical pause - to achieve the full goals of Putin in Ukraine.

Jason Crow Representative Committee member Jason Crow said that Putin believes that he has a favorable US president who is more focused on short -term victories. The focus has understood whether Vladimir Putin was really changing his intentions for war in Ukraine and would try to conclude a long -term peace agreement. According to political scientist Oleg Posternak, the latest actions of Russia and the United States indicate a change in the tactics of both parties in the war in Ukraine.

In particular, Moscow has increasingly signals about readiness for certain "concessions", but only in the form of short -term truce. According to American intelligence, the Kremlin, in contact with intra -economic problems, sanction pressure and threats of curtailment of international projections, can theoretically limit its maximalist requirements. This occurs on the background of Washington's activation in the diplomatic and economic plane.

"The United States has now started the final stage of pressure on Russia: in addition to new sanctions, large-scale decisions, such as the establishment of a fund for the restoration of Ukraine and signing agreements on strategic economic cooperation, have been made. isolation and economic levers, in parallel leaving the space for political maneuver, "says focus Posterak.

American intelligence, for his part, predicts that in a situation of increasing pressure, Putin can make partial concessions - not because he seeks peace, but to avoid large -scale mobilization. Maximalism - demonstrating that it is not ready to concede. The declared "three -day truce" is perceived by the US as a profanity that does not meet expectations. Washington clearly made it clear that not formal pauses, but structured, clearly agreed steps.

And if there is no such sanction hammer, " - continues Posternak. At the same time, Moscow's reaction has become sharper. Public statements of Lavrov, Patrushev, Shoigu, Medvedev - are signals that Russia officially" descends "Radical players. Scenes, contacts between the US and Russian sides. But this is only part of the plan. After that, according to Moscow, direct negotiations between the Russian Federation and Ukraine should start without the United States.

The Kremlin hinted at it in the comments of the last weeks. However, it looks unlikely: Ukraine has already passed a similar scenario repeatedly, and no result has produced it. Probably this time will not give anything, " - says the political scientist. According to Posternak, the idea is simple: either Russia agrees to serious compromises, or it is completely squeezed from the global market. However, the problem is that the opponent is specific.

The scenario The words of political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko, now in expert circles, both in Ukraine and in the West, are actively discussing two opposite points of view. They are believed that they can still try the offensive in the summer, but in the fall they will have serious difficulties. It will not be enough resources - money, people, means - for a full -scale war. Therefore, Russia will have to negotiate.

"It is this point of view that it seems to me that the current assessment of American intelligence. But I emphasize: these are not intelligence, but analytical evaluation. They gathered information from various Russian sources, attracted experts, and formed such a picture," Fesenko says. Recently, Americans believed that Russia intends to fight for a long time and did not plan to stop. Now they assume that Moscow may be ready to end the war earlier.

The second point of view is also widespread in the expert environment: Russia can without much problems continue fighting for at least the end of the year, and possibly a few more years. Both positions have their arguments. There are really problems in Russia, and they are more. But how critical they are - it is difficult to say now. "I will share my own opinion. It is not so much about Russia's resources or its willingness for a long war, but about Putin's goals.

And they, as I understand them, are as follows: to continue the war against Ukraine, to win the victory or surrender of Ukraine - and at the same time to agree with Trump. He said: "I do not want to compromise-I will only talk to Russia. " However, this scenario does not work completely. For example, the so -called "resource agreement" partially destroys Putin's plans. It makes Ukraine important for the United States. Now Trump trusts Ukraine a little more and a little less - Putin.

And here Putin faces his choice. What to do next? According to the political scientist, there are several scenarios: "The departure of the US from the negotiation process is also a form of pressure. Both on us and the Russians. Tactics are to reduce the importance of negotiations that do not produce results, and switch the attention of the public. It will not be a final way out. Will not work, " - continues Fesenko.

In parallel with the estimates of US intelligence on changing the goals of the Russian Federation in Ukraine, the Vice President of the United States of America, Jay Di, does not believe in the rapid end of the war in Ukraine. He believes that US President Donald Trump proposed "one of the best transactions of the 21st century", but the final steps should take the Russian and Ukrainian sides.

"My impression is that in part of the Trump team - namely Marco Rubio, the State Department and some others - now a stupor. They do not know what to do next. Yes, Trump wants to stop the war, but how to do it is unclear. They are still determined," Fesenko says. In his opinion, perhaps after May 9, when the propaganda campaign will end in Russia, the parties will return to the negotiations. The Russians may have already submitted such signals to Americans.

And, perhaps that is why Ukraine is now putting pressure - to ratify the agreement that will become a lever in future negotiations. "See. Not this week will be decisive as Rubio predicted. But certainty may appear closer to May 9. Either real ceasefire negotiations will begin, or a pause will occur, and the US will decide whether to continue to participate and in what format," the political scientist summarizes.