Putin wants to talk? Why Victor Orban said that Ukraine would not win war with Russia

"Here is another gesture of goodwill. We are coming from Kharkiv region and Zaporizhzhya (conditionally), Russia offers ceasefire and negotiations. " Winter, cold, inflation in Europe and more. We need to negotiate. Russian lobbyists are actively promoting this message in Europe. In fact, Orban's words should be read on the contrary. Yes, Ukraine must win in this war. Yes, sanctions are valid. Although Russia does not.

"We may take about a decade to return the economy to the level of 2021," says Sberbank, the largest in Russia. He recently told reporters that due to the sanctions of the West of freight to Russia, they had fallen six times. "The sanctions have broken almost all logistics in our country," the Russian Minister of Transport says. These are the statements of officials. Many economic indicators for the public are closed. And that's what I paid attention to.

It is almost impossible to maintain an army in the 21st century without semiconductors. And exports of semiconductors to Russia fell 74% compared to the year earlier. In addition, exports from the United States to Russia forbidden goods (almost everything that Russian military, technological companies or energy sector need) decreased by 95. 9% in value compared to 2021. The Peterson International Economy Institute draws attention to other interesting figures.

Using export data from 54 countries (which 90% of Russian imports accounted for last year), they found that exports from the countries that have imposed sanctions have fallen by 60% from the second half of 2021, and exports from countries that did not impose sanctions, It fell 40% despite the expectations, imported imports from China - from 8. 1 billion to 3. 8 billion per month. The fact is that in the US, China exports seven times more and their campaigns are banally afraid of US sanctions.

Global enterprises continue to leave Russia. Even the mayor of Moscow declared his concern. It is a total of 5 million workers (sixth of all labor force). Even 10% of them leave the country, it should be borne in mind that it is mostly highly educated workers. Not to mention billions of investments and consequences for GDP. It is an unprecedented loss of capital and personnel with serious long -term consequences. Well, about Putin's gold.

Oil exports from Saudi Arabia and Iraq to Europe in July could be almost twice as high as in January - Bloomberg. Their oil gradually replaces Russian, which companies refuse to be in the EU. And Russia is trying to redirect exports to China and India, but they buy with significant discounts. Gazprom's published data shows that this month gas production has decreased by more than 35% in annual calculation. In general, despite significant stocks from oil and gas sales, there is a problem with them.

About half of $ 600 billion has accumulated in Europe, the US and Japan. The remaining currency reserves are declining rapidly, since the beginning of the war - by $ 75 billion. That is, although oil and gas profits remain significant, everything indicates that Putin may end up faster than it was thought. At least, this is stated in the great material "In fact, the Russian economy is falling apart", which went out on Foreign Policy yesterday.

It contains 9 myths that the Kremlin tries to spread to see that sanctions do not work. So, despite the bravado statements that "sanctions do not work, you need to change the strategy and negotiate", the facts indicate that the Russian economy is shaking at any indicator and at any level. The sanctions caused her very serious harm. It is very similar that Russia is not avoiding economic collapse as long as the Union countries remain single.