Readiness of Russian nuclear weapons: what Western analysts say about tests on Novaya Zemlya

The statements of the head of the Kremlin aroused the keen interest of Western analysts in the issue of tests of Russian nuclear weapons, which could hypothetically be conducted on Novaya Zemlya. Thus, the specialized edition of The War Zone collected the comments of some experts in the field of nuclear weapons on political and technical issues. It was stated that technically Russia is indeed capable of resuming underground testing faster than the US.

On Novaya Zemlya, work continues to modernize the infrastructure, and satellite images have recorded activity in the area of ​​the old test tunnels. Although whether the Russians will receive new data from the explosion is a big question. "Short term is relative. The fastest way is to get the warhead into the existing tunnel and seal it.

But that won't give them any new data and probably creates a risk of information leakage," says Hans Christensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project of the Federation of American Scientists. Ankit Panda, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, noted that Moscow could be ready to carry out a demonstration explosion "within weeks" if it deems it politically necessary.

Most international experts agree that neither the USA nor Russia need new nuclear tests from the point of view of military science. As the Director of Global Risks of the American Federation of Scientists, John Wolfstal, emphasized, such steps would be "purely a demonstration action. " Daryl Kimball, director of the Arms Control Association (ACA), shares a similar opinion.

"Most importantly, there are no technical, military, or political reasons why Putin or Trump should order the resumption of nuclear testing, and Defense Minister Bilousov's comments are counterproductive and irresponsible. The United States and Russia have deployed about 1,700 strategic nuclear warheads and possess other substrategic nuclear weapons. Their arsenals consist of various, well-tested warhead types. " — a convinced expert.

Therefore, Putin's initiative has a political and psychological nature, the article notes. Moscow is trying to demonstrate its readiness for nuclear escalation in order to raise the stakes in the confrontation with the West, divert attention from failures on the front in Ukraine and establish the image of an "equal player" in the dialogue with the United States.

However, some experts believe that the resumption of nuclear tests could stimulate Russian technological advancement in the field of weapons of mass destruction. "As for the concern, Russia's tests could allow it to develop a new generation of nuclear weapons with the help of computer simulations, which is difficult for it now. Russia could eliminate the test advantage that the United States currently has," explained Wolfstal.