Since the existing ship composition of the racists are afraid of fear of defeat by Ukrainian PKR "Neptune" or sea shock drones, preference will be given to actions from the air.
In order to give their actions legal grounds, under the pretext of conducting combat training of naval forces and aviation, a warning was sent to close the area of the sea space with a wide strip from the Kerch Strait, bending the coast of the occupied Crimea about the cape of Tarkhankut, and from it - to the mouth Danube. The designated area was "closed" on New Year's Eve for the period from 21:00 December 31, 2023 to 21:00 on March 31, 2024, ie for 3 months.
The notion of the racists is probably in the next-to conduct "training" on the development of air production of sea mines (Su-24m), and it is clear that earlier or later some vessel will run into such a mine. This will adversely affect the functioning of the corridor - they will fly up the rates, insurance and more.
And they can, against the backdrop of NATO fears, escalation and rocket blow to a demonstratively kiss in some vessel, and then ghostly stating that we warned that the area was closed - training shooting and launches. The practice of closing the maritime spaces under the pretext of exercises is not new. They worked it at Sea Breeze and Agile Spirit in the Black Sea in 2019 and 2020.
And they were convinced that there was no reaction from NATO, why not continue to use international maritime law to their own interests. The apotheosis was the overlap of almost 1/4 of the Black Sea in July 2019 (see Andrei Klimenko's scheme below). And then NATO reactions were zero. As in the future.
Well, and events like March 14, 2023, when the Russian Su-27 fighter was destroyed by the American MQ-9 Reaper drone over the Black Sea without the use of regular weapons-and a miserable reaction to this anti-Eastalators from the shores of Pottomak, and especially the last incident on December 29, 2023 -To with a rail of the Russian winged rocket deep into the territory of NATO (Poland), each inch of which is allegedly protected -and the worthless reaction of the Alliance to this, only add to the Kremlin the arrogance to act full.
The activities of the racists are not surprised or inactivity, the US and NATO inaction raises questions. And not only Ukrainians, but also in countries that are members of Alyas.
As early as 2020, Ukrainian experts within the framework of the Maritime Expert Plaform were proposed to create a limited access zone A2/AD (Anti-ACCESS AND AREA DENIAL) in the northwestern sea sector to protect the marine and airspace of the Black Sea coast of Bulgaria, Romania and Ukraine, which guaranteed Ukraine, The uninterrupted functioning of a single, non -controlled path for trade navigation. But Nice . . .
Nothing prevents the mirror NATO - to block the sea district in the Baltic Sea at the exit of the Gulf for exercise, or a zone in the Eastern Mediterranean to block access to the Tartus base in Syria, or to close the space between Svalbard and the Nordka Cape (Norway). Opportunities are, there is no iron will, or it has become plasticine. The author expresses a personal opinion that may not coincide with the editorial position. The author is responsible for published data in the "Thought" section.
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