Putin was given time until spring: how the United States and China see the coming months of the war in Ukraine

WHEN WILL THE FIGHTING STOP? I report: at negotiations and meetings with the participation of representatives of various levels from Ukraine, the Russian Federation, the USA, the EU and China, compromise agreements were practically reached on the main issues of the cessation of hostilities, and the non-main issues can be resolved in the process of open negotiations.

Today, this potentially reached compromise looks quite predictable: the battles are frozen along the battle line (because the front in the sense of the Second World War, when there were solid positions, is now gone). But Putin continues to insist that the Armed Forces withdraw from the controlled part of Donbas. This will allow Putin to announce to his own population that they started the war to "protect Donbas", and this goal has been achieved, that is, the sub-empire has won.

In turn, Putin is ready to withdraw his troops from part of the occupied Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, and Kharkiv regions. Such an exchange is not equivalent. Because the voluntary withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from Donbas, which they so fiercely defend, will significantly demoralize both our armed forces and the country in general. In addition, the occupation of Donbas will allow the aggressor to create a powerful bridgehead from which he can resume hostilities in a year or two.

The argument will be that the Zaporizhia and Kherson regions are included in the Russian Federation, but are largely controlled by Ukraine. Accordingly, our leadership categorically does not agree to exit from Donbas. That is why D. Trump periodically throws out such a phrase that "sometimes you have to let the parties fight", in particular, he mentioned this after the meeting with Xi Jinping.

The US president's logic, which is apparently supported by the Chinese leader, is that Putin should be given time until the spring for Russia to seize Donbas, and then the extremely controversial issue of the voluntary withdrawal of the Armed Forces will automatically be removed from the agenda. Or the Donbas sub-empire will not be able to be captured, and then Putin will have no reason not to agree to the freezing of hostilities (this is Trump's logic, I emphasize).

Taking all of this into account, it becomes clear why the Armed Forces have not yet been ordered to leave the Pokrovsk-Myrnograd agglomeration, although defending it in the current conditions is almost hopeless (surprisingly, hope fades last). And now it is impossible to withdraw without huge losses, because the center of Pokrovsk has turned into a gray zone, where the positions of the parties are mixed, but any movement is controlled from the air by drones. Winter will be hard.