The war in Ukraine holds the economy of the Russian Federation "afloat": experts explained what the benefit of the Kremlin

Economist Yuriy Gorodnichenko spoke about a decision that will testify to the "overheating" of the enemy economy and Skori "Critical Solutions". According to him, at some point the government of the aggressor country "will have to stop". The war in Ukraine is the only thing that does not allow Russia to enter the immediate recession. Economists reported this by Business Insider on September 29.

Professor of Boston University Jay Zagorsky emphasized that the war is holding the Russian economy "afloat". This is because the government spends huge funds from the budget to the military sector. In particular, the Kremlin purchases shape, shoes, ammunition and food for its fighters. "Now the Russian economy is supported by large volumes of government expenditures, so there will be no slowing in any sector of the economy from which the Russian government purchases products," the economist said.

However, according to him, it is only a temporary solution. Meanwhile, the problems of the Russian Federation, including spiral inflation, prolonged currency and budgetary problems, are increasing. "So, if there was no war, I think it would be a recession," Zagorsky said. Professor of California University Yuri Gorodnichenko added that the time of falling of the Russian economy is indefinite. Russia plans to spend 13. 2 trillion rubles on the defense budget in 2025, but it cannot last forever.

"With the help of public money, they can maintain the economy afloat, but at some point the government will end the money, so they will have to stop, and they will have a recession," the expert explained. According to Zagorsky, one of the biggest problems of the Russian Federation is inflation. He suggested that the figures are actually higher than they show in the aggressor country.

In addition, Russia's restricted access to the dollar through sanctions limits its capacity in trade, including oil. Moscow has turned to alternative currencies, such as Chinese yuan, but more and more China companies are not deciding to do things with it. Gorodnichenko suggested that the Russian Federation would connect with a serious recession, as soon as it ended dollars. According to his forecast, this can happen in 2025. At the same time, the demand and price of Kremlin oil products fall.

The expert is a "double blow". "It is a simple story for me. The question is how long the Russian economy can continue to develop in the conditions of these big counter -winds?" He added. Economists have agreed that the beginning of recession in Russia now depends on how long the war in Ukraine will continue. Gorodnichenko noted that he carefully monitors the raising of the bonuses for conscripts who sign a contract with the Defense Ministry.

According to him, this step will mean that the aggressor country lacks workers and its economy is "overheated". "At some point, they will have to make critical decisions - very unpopular decisions," the expert added. We will remind, the Minister of Defense of Denmark Troyels Lund Poulsen said that Ukraine will receive $ 628 million for weapons.